research0703.qxp
11/3/13
17:32
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RESEARCH
IPTV heads for 18% of pay-TV market
The worldwide Pay-TV market grew at a steady pace in 2012, generating $238 billion by endof-year, up from $223 billion in 2011, according to ABI Research’s Pay-TV ARPU and Revenues Market Data. The global Pay-TV market is expected to generate $304 billion in 2018 with a CAGR of 4%. Service revenue contributions from cable TV are proving mixed. The Asia-Pacific region saw service revenue growth due to underlying increase in subscriptions. However, cable TV operators in North America are experiencing a decline in service revenue as result of a contracting subscriber base, despite cable TV innovations such as DVR and HDTV. Globally, IPTV is gaining market share year-over-year while the rest of the pay-TV platforms are slowly contracting. IPTV service revenue market share increased from 10% in 2011 to 11.5% in 2012. Cable TV market share dropped to 47% in 2012 from 48.5% in 2011 while satellite TV market share dropped around 1%. “Availability of super-fast broadband networks and bundle offers from telcos over high-speed networks are driving the growth of IPTV adoption. IPTV market share is expected to increase to 18 per cent in 2018, to generate $53 billion in revenue,” according to Jake Saunders, VP and practice director of core forecasting. per month (for an annual run rate of 134 exabytes) by 2017. The expected steady increase in mobile traffic is partly due to continued strong growth in the number of mobile Internet connections (personal devices and machine-to-machine applications), which will exceed the world’s population (United Nations estimates 7.6 billion) by 2017. The forecast’s annual run rate of 134 exabytes of mobile data traffic is equivalent to: 134 times all the Internet Protocol traffic (fixed and mobile) generated in the year 2000, or 30 trillion images (e.g., via MMS or Instagram) — 10 images daily from each person on earth for one year, or 3 trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube) — one video clip daily from each person on earth over one year. The projected 2012 to 2017 global mobile data traffic increase represents a compound annual growth rate of 66%. The incremental amount of traffic being added to the mobile Internet just between 2016 and 2017 is 3.7 exabytes per month, which is more than four times the estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2012 (885 petabytes per month). During the 2012 to 2017 forecast period, Cisco anticipates that global mobile data traffic will outpace global fixed data traffic by a factor of three. The following major trends are driving global mobile data traffic growth: More mobile users: By 2017, there will be 5.2 billion mobile users (up from 4.3 billion in 2012). More mobile connections: By 2017, there will be more than 10 billion mobile devices/connections, including more than 1.7 billion M2M connections (up from
7 billion total mobile devices and M2M connections in 2012). Faster mobile speeds: Average global mobile network speeds will increase seven-fold from 2012 (0.5 Mbps) to 2017 (3.9 Mbps). More mobile video: By 2017, mobile video will represent 66% of global mobile data traffic (up from 51% in 2012). In terms of the impact of Mobile Devices/Connections: Smartphones, laptops, and tablets will drive 93% of global mobile data traffic by 2017. M2M traffic (such as GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems, medical applications, etc.) will represent 5% of 2017 global mobile data traffic. Basic handsets will account for the remaining 2% of global mobile data traffic in 2017. In 2012, 14% of all mobile-connected devices/connections (1 billion) were IPv6-capable. By 2017, 41% of all
mobile data traffic was offloaded (428 petabytes/month). By 2017, 46% of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded (9.6 exabytes/month). In terms of mobile data traffic growth rates over the forecast period, the Middle East and Africa region is projected to have the highest regional growth rate. Below is how each of the regions ranks in terms of growth rate by 2017: The Middle East and Africa: 77% CAGR (17.3-fold growth) Asia-Pacific: 76% CAGR (16.9-fold growth) Latin America: 67% CAGR (13.2-fold growth) Central and Eastern Europe: 66% CAGR (12.8fold growth) North America: 56% CAGR (9.4-fold growth) Western Europe: 50% CAGR (7.6-fold growth) In terms of mobile data traffic generation, the Asia-Pacific region is projected to generate the most mobile data traffic. This is the regional rank in
13-fold growth in mobile data
According to the Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2012 to 2017, worldwide mobile data traffic will increase 13-fold over the next four years, reaching 11.2 exabytes
mobile-connected devices/connections (4.2 billion) will be IPv6-capable. To address the rise in demand for mobile Internet, and to address the lack of available new mobile spectrum and the expense and complexity of adding new macrocell sites, service providers are increasingly looking to offload traffic to fixed or Wi-Fi networks. In 2012, 33% of total
terms of anticipated mobile data traffic generation by 2017: Asia-Pacific: 5.3 exabytes/month North America: 2.1 exabytes/month Western Europe: 1.4 exabytes/month The Middle East and Africa: 0.9 exabytes/month Central and Eastern Europe: 0.8 exabytes/month
26 IP television