International Journal on Criminology
ghanistan and seizures in the European Union have increased sharply in 2018 . 25 There is no doubt that in the coming weeks , due to the closure of the Schengen area and Turkey ’ s decision to close its borders with Bulgaria and Greece , it will be more difficult for traffickers to invest in the Western European market . This difficulty has been increased by the closures last February of the land borders of Iran and Turkey through which heroin passes when it leaves Afghanistan .
Although it is likely that some heroin will continue to pass through the authorized cargo of goods , the flows are expected to decrease sharply . There will therefore be an impact on the wholesale markets in the Netherlands and Belgium from which “ French ” traffickers obtain their supplies . Heroin users are therefore likely to face a shortage , especially since these two countries are a source for many users-resellers , particularly from northeastern France .
Some researchers , 26 particularly in the United Kingdom , have pointed out in this context a risk of switching to certain more dangerous opioid substances such as fentanyl , which the most established users could obtain on the dark net , a vector that is likely to be used more often because of the confinement of populations . 27 This is an interesting hypothesis that should not be overlooked , even if , in France , given access to substitution treatments , the risk seems less significant .
Provisional Conclusion and Prospective Scenarios
The cannabis resin market is virtually at a standstill due to the closure of borders in Morocco and Spain and the cocaine and synthetic drug market is under stress due to the collapse in demand and the logistical problems posed by the drop in world maritime trade and the closure of the Schengen area ; the leading criminal market in the European Union is experiencing a major crisis already deeply impacting criminal organizations . In the short term , traffickers may try to find new routes and vectors to bypass border controls ( see section on Morocco ), but as long as demand is confined , they will be unable to sell their stock .
Two scenarios are therefore possible . A fairly unlikely scenario of a fairly rapid return to normal , with the lifting of border controls , the end of containment or partial containment , which would mean a strong recovery of the drug market . From then on , the accumulated stock would spill over at bargain prices in a context where frustrated demand would itself be at its highest . Organized crime would therefore be strengthened .
25 EMCDDA , Europol , op . cit ., 2019
27 Europol , An assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on serious organized crime and terrorism in the EU , mars 2020 .
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