International Journal on Criminology Volume 7, Number 2, Spring 2020 | Page 29

International Journal on Criminology
tive events (such as the decapitation of a leader) that may be counterproductive
under certain circumstances. It is argued in this paper that resilience theory might
provide the insights needed to understand why some terrorist organizations are
able to withstand attempts to eradicate them while others are not. In the field of
psychology, resilience theory is used to explain why some people are better able
than others to tolerate traumatic events. Adaptation of resilience theory to criminal
activity stems from Jones’s analysis of a Mexican drug cartel. Jones argues
against using resilience as a binary variable to show whether or not an organization
is able to survive after a major traumatic event. He believes that a broader approach
is more appropriate because a person’s response to a major traumatic event
can be experienced on different levels, based on certain subjective conditions. 59
Jones posits that levels of resilience extend along a continuum, starting with
survive intact and continues with restructure, fragmentation, internecine conflict,
and dissolution, where survive intact is the strongest form of resilience and dissolution
is the least. Survive intact refers to the most flexible and adaptive type of
organization. It can absorb almost any kind of disruptive shock without undergoing
a major endeavor. Restructure is another strong level of resistance. It refers to
the capability of a criminal organization to determine when to undergo a major
restructuring after a shocking event, such as the elimination of the leader of the
organization. Fragmentation refers to the level of resiliency common among organizations
that split into new, smaller-scale organizations. The new entities maintain
mostly cordial relations, but occasionally get into conflicts with one another
based on the duties performed within the organization. Internecine conflict occurs
when the departed groups engage in violence against one another in an attempt to
dominate the turf of the now-fragmented organization and leads to a lower level
of resilience. Finally, dissolution refers to the total destruction of a criminal organization’s
network, usually after sophisticated state response. 60
On the basis of Jones’s taxonomy, it is argued in this paper that when terrorist
organizations encounter a disruptive event and fragment, restructure, engage
in internecine conflict, or dissolve as a consequence of that disruptive event, they
pledge allegiance to major terrorist organizations. The only exception to the applicability
of Jones’s resilience typology to terrorist organizations is the survive intact
level of resiliency. Terrorist organizations that survive intact after a disruptive
event do not to pledge allegiance to another terrorist organization. For example,
ISIS leader Baghdadi was killed in 2019 but soon had a new leader. The decapitation
of the group’s leader did not impact the organization. Similarly, when bin
Laden was killed in 2011, the AQ core appointed Zawahiri as bin Laden’s successor,
and the group carried out its activities as usual. The Taliban is another ex-
59 N. Jones, Mexico’s Illicit Drug Networks and the State Response (Georgetown University Press, 2014),
32.
60 N. Jones, Mexico’s Illicit Drug Networks, 33.
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