International Journal on Criminology Volume 7, Number 2, Spring 2020 | Page 26

Why Salafi-Jihadist Terrorist Groups Pledge Allegiance to Al Qaeda or Isis
groups, and the loss of almost all of the territory it had seized—its organizational
structure has turned out to be extremely resilient. This resilience stems, in part,
from a mindset that enables the organization to readily replace leaders who have
been killed. Another factor, which reflects the history of AQ, is the ability of ISIS
to restructure itself after major defeats into cell-type small entities that are located
mostly in regions of the Middle East. More importantly, ISIS was able to use the
security vacuum in Iraq and Syria (and elsewhere) to its advantage, relying on
years of accumulated experience to reorganize and regroup. 47 It would seem likely,
therefore, that other areas with a security vacuum, such as Libya and Yemen,
would become safe havens for ISIS in the future. Gerges suggests that the Arab
states should strengthen their fragile organizational structures, gain power, and
become stable states if they want to totally destroy ISIS. 48 The most recent attacks
claimed by ISIS show that the organization is fully capable of carrying out attacks
in the most developed countries of the world, with almost no cost to the organization,
through its network of affiliates spread all over the world.
How Terrorist Organizations React and Respond:
Resilience Theory
The ability of AQ and ISIS to survive several major disruptions that likely
would have destroyed other similar organizations stems from these groups’
rather flexible and resilient organizational structures. A study by Young and
Dugan provides insight into why some terrorists groups are able to survive (and
even thrive) while others are defeated and eliminated. For their study, Young and
Dugan examined the survival patterns of 2,223 terrorist organizations between
1970 and 2010. They found that the mean duration of survival for terrorist organizations
is 3.33 years; however, 68 percent of all terrorist organizations collapse
within the first year following their debut. Furthermore, only 20 percent of terrorist
organizations can survive long enough to celebrate their fifth anniversary,
and 93 percent of all terrorist attacks are perpetrated by organizations that are
older than one year. 49 The root causes of organizational resilience among terrorist
organizations are the subject of debate among scholars. Some scholars point to the
durability of terrorist organizations after the death/decapitation of their leaders.
The most formidable disruption for any terrorist organization is, of course, the
death/decapitation of the leader, an event that is still considered to be the most effective
governmental counterterrorism strategy; therefore, the survival of a terrorist
organization following the death/decapitation of its leader can be considered
the main determinant of the group’s resilience. The literature on the resiliency of
47 T. Tønnessen, “The Islamic State after the Caliphate,” Perspectives on Terrorism 13, no. 1 (2019).
48 F.A. Gerges, A History of ISIS (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017).
49 J. Young and L. Dugan, “Survival of the Fittest: Why Terrorist Groups Endure,” Perspectives on Terrorism
8, no. 2 (2014).
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