International Journal on Criminology Volume 6, Number 1, Spring 2018 | Page 8

Between Instability and Chaos: The Hybridization of Threats
up and developed significant capabilities, notably in ballistics. This makes it even
more urgent for us to find a political solution in Syria and a national settlement in
Iraq. We have been able to win the war, but we must now win the peace, which also
requires multidimensional humanitarian, economic, and political action.
- The Hybridization of Actors
The second level of analysis considers actors and their method of action.
• Mutation of the Terrorist Threat
Let us think back to the threat represented by ISIS as of summer 2014, when its
status moved from that of a clandestine organization to that of a territorial power.
Funded by trafficking, equipped with heavy artillery and sophisticated propaganda
capabilities, it was able to attract international volunteers, and project its
forces abroad by organizing attacks on European soil. With its military defeat in
the Levant, ISIS will certainly soon disappear in the territorial form in which we
know it. This is the end of the fantasy—and resources—of the pseudo-caliphate.
However, it is not the end of the threat of extreme violence against our citizens,
interests, and territory. ISIS will seek new ways in which to take action and will
take up a more classic mode of terrorism, through clandestine and asymmetric
action. This requires us to reconfigure our forces and intelligence services in order
to respond to such changes.
• State Threats and Methods of Intimidation
But hybridization is not limited to terrorist actors. It can also be seen in the behavior
of certain states, who are implementing strategies of intimidation in the service
of a project of regional hegemony, using hybrid methods and means in order to
remain under the threshold of attribution. These actions are taking place across all
sectors, from indirect intervention on the ground by militia or “volunteers,” to interference
and destabilization operations in cyberspace, and the use of means such
as coastguards or fishing boats at sea. Behind this mask lies a resurgent potential
for conflict between states, and the threats of escalation and confrontation created
by indirect strategies of this kind.
3. CONCLUSION
In response to these mutating threats, we require powerful tools of understanding
and analysis. I would like to end on an important point: the need for breaking
down barriers, which we must do in order to keep pace with current strategic
developments.
We must remove the mental and intellectual barriers that prevent us from understanding
the multiple dimensions of these phenomena when they are combined in
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