International Journal on Criminology Volume 3, Number 1, Spring 2015 | Page 36

What recent property crime trends in Western Europe tells us about the crime drop
On the basis of these results, she asserts that “the evidence from the BCS suggests
security devices are very effective in reducing the risk of burglary victimization” (Budd
1999).
Moreover, the BCS survey was also able to measure that “ownership of security
devices increased substantially between 1992 and 1998” (Budd 1999). She points specifically
to the case of security lights and alarms, for which the rates of ownership rose sharply
(Budd 1999, 36).
However, Budd does not suggest that this increase is a possible explanation for the
observed downward trend: “Between 1993 and 1997 the number of burglaries fell by 8%”
(Budd 1999, 7), probably because the variation at the time was “not statistically significant”
(Budd 1999, 7).
The trend for “burglary with entry,” minus 14% between 1993 and 1997, is
nonetheless “a statistically significant drop” and one would like to know if it could be
explained by the increase in the amount of security devices. The size of the samples may
have been a factor in limiting the possibilities of analysis of this subject.
Furthermore, the logical regression to determine, “all things otherwise being equal,”
the factors having an impact on the probability of declaring oneself a victim of burglary was
carried out on the combined results of the 1996 and 1998 BCS (the survey was not annual at
the time), precisely in order to have a larger sample size.
In July 2001, in a note from the Home Office titled “Burglary: Practice Message
from the British Crime Survey,” the lessons drawn from the BCS were presented from an
operational perspective: “The findings are directly relevant to police and crime reduction
partnership practice, in that they identify groups and circumstances which could profitably
act as the focus for local analysis and prevention priorities” (Budd 2001, 1).
One of the objectives of this note is “raising public awareness about the efficacy of
home security” (Budd 2001, 5). According to Budd, “one of the major contributions of BCS
in recent years has been to demonstrate the efficacy of security devices” (Budd 2001, 4).
However, in the 2000 report by the Home Office on the BCS, the connection between
the decline in burglaries and the increase in the level of security devices and equipment is
mentioned in the conditional:
The BCS has shown that security devices are effective in reducing the risk of burglary
(Budd 1999). For example, victims of burglary are less likely to have security
measures in place at the time of the incident than non-victims. Furthermore,
victims of burglary with entry tend to have less security than victims of attempted
burglary suggesting security is effective in thwarting at least some offenders.
Between 1998 and 2000, levels of home security continued to increase and this
may partly account for the reduction in burglary over the period. For example,
26% of households said they had a burglar alarm in 2000 and 75% window locks.
The figures in 1998 were 24% and 71% respectively (Kershaw et al. 2000, 18).
In July 2001, vehicle-related thefts were also the object of an operational guidance
note based on the BCS results (Kinshott 2001).
As for burglaries, this note took the most recent information provided by the English
victimization survey for reasons of prevention: “Much of the statistical information in this
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