International Journal on Criminology Volume 3, Number 1, Spring 2015 | Page 26

From “Arab Spring” to Jihadist Ice Age: Approaches to
the “Complex East”
Christian Vallar A
International Journal on Criminology - Spring 2015, Volume 3, Number 1
In 2011, using the distinctive name of Operation Unified Protector, the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) conducted a military intervention in Libya, under the UN
mandate; and summer 2013 brought the dismaying spectacle of discord between NATO
members and among the wider community regarding the need for “punitive” strikes against
the Syrian regime, which was strongly suspected of having crossed a “red line” by using
chemical weapons against its own rebellious population.
These two geopolitical conflicts were at the heart of what Europe and other Western
nations have seen fit to call the “Arab Spring.” It has been presented as an uprising of
oppressed people, in particular the young, who have used the resources of the Internet and
social networks against dictatorships—ones that were firmly established—and in favor of
freedom and democracy. Even though the start of these events dates back to an act of selfimmolation
when a young Tunisian man sets himself on fire on December 17, 2010 (not,
therefore, during the spring season), this designation is understandable in light of the 1848
“Springtime of Nations,” when a great revolutionary wave spread through most of Europe.
It can also be understood as a broader reference to insurrections by oppressed people (e.g.,
the “Prague Spring” of 1968).
But is this “spring” truly a sign of hope, or does it also contain a threat within it?
The “Arab Spring” or Hopes for the Blossoming of Democracy
In Tunisia, Ben Ali’s dictatorship collapsed in less than a month (December 17,
2010–January 14, 2011). In Egypt, it was only three weeks before President Hosni Mubarak
resigned following massive demonstrations in Cairo’s Tahrir Square (January 25–February
2, 2011). In Libya (February 17–October 20, 2011), the uprising of the Benghazi population
ended with the violent death of Muammar Gaddafi, even though the dictator had been in
place for 42 years. In March 2011 in Syria, the first peaceful demonstrations were brutally
repressed in Daraa; these were at the root of the civil war (declaration of June 12, 2012, by the
UN under-secretary-general for peacekeeping operations) that would wreak havoc in the
country, the string of atrocities it brought in its wake provoking strong media coverage. In
February 2011, the first signs of protest were seen in Yemen against President Ali Abdullah
Saleh; these led to his resignation and the election of Abd Mansour Hadi on February 21,
2012. The list goes on if we are to include Bahrain, Morocco, and Jordan, although these
countries have not experienced any violence.
L'étincelle: Révoltes dans les pays arabes (The Spark: Uprisings in the Arab Countries)
is the title of a work published by the great writer Tahar Ben Jelloun. It is echoed in An 1 des
revolutions arabes (Year 1 of the Arab Revolutions) by Bernard Guetta, a former journalist with
Le Monde newspaper, who states, “Nothing can stop [the uprising of the] people, especially
A Director of the Centre d’études et de Recherches en Droit Administratif, Constitutionnel, Financier et
Fiscal, EA 7267; Dean of the Faculty of Law and Politics, University of Nice Sophia Antipolis
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