International Dealer News IDN 146 December 2018 / January 2019 | Page 4
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COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT •
Not all statistics are equal
ur industry is heavily dependent on statistics. From show
attendances, inventory and margins to displacements,
performance calibrations and registrations - we float in a sea of
statistical dependency.
But, to channel American author Mark Twain (who credited 19th century British Prime
Minister Benjamin Disraeli for the “Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics” quote), for sure not
all statistics are of equal validity.
In this era of so-called “fake news”, the famous (infamous?) epithet still highlights
how statistics can be bent, shaped and moulded to support any argument, any agenda,
any interpretation of any (apparent) facts some 150 years after it was first coined.
In the case of our current market, there are two statistical issues that are vexing those
who seek clarity - visitor statistics at the market’s two major industry shows (INTERMOT
and EICMA) and the true new motorcycle sales trend that appears to be hidden
underneath the Euro 3/Euro 4 transition impacted registration data for 2016, 2017
and, increasingly apparently, for 2018.
In the past three or four years there has been much debate about the comparative
merits and demerits of INTERMOT and EICMA - much of
it revolving around the attendance numbers and how
even the OE manufacturers, including those with an
effective ownership stake in INTERMOT, appear to be
voting with their own feet by staging ever more new
model launches at Milan rather than Cologne, even in the
even numbered INTERMOT years.
Well, that has way more to do with the exhibit discounts
that EICMA is “persuading” the manufacturers with (to
launch at EICMA and specifically NOT do so at INTERMOT) than the attendance
numbers, because they understand the reality of the attendance number claims (they
see the real figures) and “get it” where the comparative value per visitor comparison
between the shows is concerned.
ICMA persists in making unsubstantiated visitor number claims. Again, after this
year’s show, their press release talks about percentage increases without actually
naming a number - I think it is some years since ANCMA, the trade association that
owns EICMA, have cited an actual hard figure - which makes one think they are trying
to roll back on the notoriously inflated claims being made as the motorcycle market
endured the “dark decade” following the 2007 financial crisis.
Conversely, however, Koelnmesse, which stages INTERMOT, is a member of a domestic
German expo centre trade association that insists that all member expo numbers are
independently audited - so although they are always citing an apparently lower figure
than EICMA, we know it is a true number at some 220,000. INTERMOT 2018 matched
the 2016 record number the show has attracted since moving from Munich.
Then there is the issue of how many EICMA visitors are of riding age, and what kind
of mileage and ownership profile (and therefore aftermarket value) they actually have.
At both INTERMOT and EICMA I spent 30 minutes sat in the central ‘causeway’
watching the visitors (in both cases on the Thursday - a public day), and the contrast
couldn’t have been starker. At INTERMOT the vast majority were clearly riders - you
could tell by what they were wearing or carrying. At EICMA? Not so much.
Honestly, in 30 minutes I didn’t see one single person wearing or carrying riding gear,
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not one. Those who looked like they might ride (at best between a quarter and a third
of the traffic watched) were in the minority and were clearly low mileage, mostly urban
scooter riders.
Sure, an important and growing sector, but not riders who underpin the industry
balance sheet with the kind of mileage and spending needed to sustain the investments
that multiple ‘big ticket’ shows like INTERMOT, EICMA and others suck from budgets.
Meanwhile, what of the registration statistics? Well, this month we lead with the latest
quarterly statistics from ACEM on the front cover and have some three pages of
statistical reports from 10 different countries on three continents.
ot for one minute is there a suggestion that the figures themselves are in any
sense dubious, in strict terms they are not. They are accurate and, for what they
are, entirely reliable and coming from impeccable sources and compiled diligently by
hard working people whose job is simply to “do the math” - and for that everyone
should be grateful. It isn’t easy work and does take a certain talent and mindset.
No, the problem lies with the interpretation and context - and again, this is really
nobody’s fault as such, but as I said in the last edition, I think it behoves everybody
just to be aware that all may not entirely be as it seems.
I met a few people at the shows who had read my October
Comment and thought that it made sense, and in fact
made particular sense in the context of the “real world”
feeling they had for just how well the market is really doing
at present.
The issue isn’t with the headline figure. Selling (or rather,
registering) 830,694 in total motorcycles in the nine
months to September is a perfectly good number,
especially in the context of the 2013 nadir.
It is the 2017 comparison of +8.2 percent that is likely to be misleading a lot of people
in the aftermarket (the trade association and OEM professionals ‘get it’) into thinking
that growth is flowing like milk and honey again. It isn’t!
As we here at IDN have pointed out on multiple occasions this year (and will do so
again next year when the final 2018 numbers are available), it is the “official” 2017
figure that is tainting the comparison.
The 50,000 to 80,000 “units” that were pre-registered in 2016 (especially in the final
quarter) in advance of the Euro 4 compliance deadline at the end of that year were
(mostly) sold by dealers in the early months of 2017, even at some often quite deep
discounts, favourable terms and with generous accessory and G&A bundles as
incentives.
After the return to growth seen in the second half of 2014, the market has had two
very good years in 2015 and 2016, but then the registrations picture had started to
level off by this time last year and has continued to plateau in 2018.
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‘the problem is
interpretation
and context’
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INTERNATIONAL DEALER NEWS - DECEMBER 2018 / JANUARY 2019
Robin Bradley
Publisher
[email protected]
www.idnmag.com