International Dealer News IDN 141 February/March 2018 | Page 6

STAT ZONE
<<< Continued from cover
Indeed, by the time we were into May,
it may well be that dealers were taking
an effective loss on those bike sales
and that, ultimately, some thousands
of those units were “moved on”
through the channels to be sold by so-
called “grey importers/dealers” or
through the cross-border used
motorcycle retail network.
However, if the lowest possible of the
figures is used - 50,000 Euro 3 units
sold at above dealer cost through
authorised or franchised dealerships -
then the post 2013 picture changes
radically, and the “real world” number
of low single digits growth for 2017
that had been unofficially cited by at
least three of the major market trade
associations becomes a more reliable
estimate of the 2017 market and the
ongoing post-2013 trend.
At 50,000 fewer, the more realistic
sales number for EU markets in 2016
is around 960,000 units, which,
compared to 2016, shows a more
realistic growth rate of 7.7 percent for
2016 following the 11 percent seen in
2015 and 7.3 percent seen in 2014.
If those 50,000 Euro 3 units are more
accurately recorded as 2017 sales,
then, at worst, 2017 was essentially
“flat” with some 4,000 additional
units sold over 2016. This recognises
the widespread anecdotal feeling in
the industry that 2017 was a “good
year”; any year that sees the market
hold on to the 20 percent growth seen
in the prior 4 years (given where
market trends had been in the period
between 2008 and 2013) must indeed
be regarded as a “good year”!
In fact, that 50,000 unit adjustment is
on the light side - it is a very cautious
estimate. In truth a figure of 55,000 is
likely to be much closer to the reality
EU motorcycle registrations 2010-2017
+13.27%
1,009,678
1,014,775
1,000,000
-8.98%
923,640
+10.99%
891,369
900,000
-10.99%
822,172
800,000
-8.96%
748,529
700,000
“If those 50,000 Euro 3 units are more
accurately recorded as 2017 sales,
then, at worst, 2017 was essentially
“flat” with some 4,000 additional units
sold over 2016”
of the situation and that would bring
the market much closer to where
anecdotal evidence suggests the sales
number should be, at +1.4 percent;
indeed at 60,000 Euro 3 sales in 2017,
the market would have grown by +2.5
percent at 973,445 units sold, up from
a more realistic figure of 949,678 units
in 2016.
This would mean that the 2014
growth of +7.3 percent was followed
by +11 percent in 2015, then +6.5
percent in 2016 and +2.5 percent in
2017. This is trend data that is much
closer to the unofficial estimates being
cited by some of the major market
trade associations
and manufacturers,
and more in line with
anecdotal evidence
from dealers and the
parts and accessory
sector.
Indeed, although
Japanese motorcycle
brand sales are only part of the
European equation, and nothing like
as large a percentage of the market as
they were a decade and more ago, an
analysis of the Japanese made
motorcycle export data issued every
moth by JAMA, confirms the central
1,014,775
+6.54%
949,678
1,000,000
-8.98%
923,640
+10.99%
891,369
900,000
-10.99%
822,172
+7.29%
803,122
-8.96%
748,529
700,000
6
-9.53%
913,445
+7.29%
803,122
EU motorcycle registrations 2010-2017 -
adjusted for Euro 3/4 impact
800,000
Data source: ACEM
INTERNATIONAL DEALER NEWS - FEBRUARY/MARCH 2018
+2.50%
973,445
thesis - namely that the 2016
registration data is distorted by Euro 3
inventory pre-registration and that
therefore 2017 market performance is
better than appears to be the case.
In fact, off the record, one major
European motorcycle industry trade
association General Secretary that IDN
spoke to recently thought that even
the 60,000 number was probably still
an underestimate of the effect.
The significance of this isn’t in the
numbers as such, because either way
approximately the same number of
units were sold, one way or another,
over a 24-month cycle.
However, in a world where perception
is a critical driver of consumer
confidence, it is much more appealing
for consumers, especially younger
consumers and new entrants, to want
to be involved in a growing market
than in one that may be open to being
interpreted as being “yesterday’s
news”.
The moped sector is undergoing its
own Euro 3/Euro 4 moment now, with
the regulations coming into effect 12
months later. Which probably explains
the equally counter-intuitive 2017
new moped registration data also
released by ACEM.
From a recent high of 588,853 units
registered in 2010 (actually, itself a
figure much reduced from 2007 and
before, as a result of the financial
crisis), moped registrations have been
in steady decline year-on-year.
The 2016 figure of 316,662 marked a
near 14,000 unit decline on 2015
(down by -4.2 percent) and a loss of
more than 270,000 units sold annually
since 2010 (-46.2 percent).
In that context the apparent 2017
growth of some 82,000 units for a
+26.1 percent moped market is clearly
counter-intuitive. The rate of decline in
new moped registrations has slowed
in recent years (the market lost some
36,000 units between 2014 and 2016