• COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT • COMMENT •
Case proven – “ motorcycles ” now accounting for over 77 percent of new PTW registrations
The multiple challenges presented by this year ’ s January and February new motorcycle registration statistics from around Europe ( Euro 3 pre-registrations , low volumes etc .) mean that it is difficult to say , at this stage , whether or not the excellent growth seen in 2016 is going to sustain through 2017 . In all likelihood , there has been some growth in January and February this year , regardless of what the official registration statistics from the trade associations show , simply because those pre-registered Euro 3 bikes are being sold , they are providing showroom action for Europe ’ s dealers , albeit at no doubt heavily “ incentivised ” pricing and extras packages , but because they count as “ preregistered ” ( despite the zero miles on them ), they sit in the pre-owned sales statistics . The + 13.3 percent growth in new motorcycle registrations reported by ACEM for all EU markets in 2016 is an exceptional result . It follows an equally exceptional + 11.64 percent in 2015 and , given that it was such a dramatic reverse of the - 11.13 seen in 2013 , the + 7.90 percent growth seen in 2014 was an equally impressive expression of a market recovery that had started to show through in the new registration statistics in the second half of 2013 . The cycle that the industry has been through since 2001 ( earlier even ) has been a rollercoaster of unprecedented proportions . In 2001 the market ( EU countries ) was worth 1,216,333 new motorcycle registrations ; this grew to a 2007 peak of 1,524,602 ( five straight years of annual growth ) before the first signs of trouble in 2008 , when a - 7.31 decline presaged the financial crisis . That marked the first of six consecutive years of market decline , that saw us lose greater than 50 percent of 2007 motorcycle sales levels – that ’ s a drop of greater than -51 percent in the six years that followed unit growth of + 34 percent in the five years from 2002 to 2007 . At the “ bottom ” of the market is 2013 ( 739,886 units ), when the market had lost 35 percent of its 2002 unit sales in 11 years . The statistics I am discussing here are strictly EU markets . The additional registrations of between 36,000 at their lowest , and 59,000 at their peak , reported by EFTA markets ( Norway and Switzerland ) are exactly that , additional to these statistics . Also , this analysis has been motorcycles only so far , or what are categorised as motorcycles in the coordinated statistics that ACEM pulls together from the individual national trade associations , and those are based on the variable definitions that exist around Europe in national governmental classification terms . Those caveats notwithstanding , a comparison between motorcycles and total PTW ( Powered Two- Wheeler ) of the 14 years of industry statistics from 2002 to 2016 bear out in graphic detail a trend that I have been pointing to in the past three years as growth has returned . I have been pointing to an apparent trend for the growth to be strongest at the “ top end ” of the PTW market in price-point and displacement terms , and the benefit of that trend that dealerships are therefore seeing in value and turnover terms . all time high
Okay - since we have still lost some 34 percent of peak market units , even after the growth seen 2014 – 2016 , that “ benefit ” is somewhat of a Pyrrhic victory . However , given the comparative average price points that are likely to be involved , the market may well be nearer to being caught up in Euro turnover and value terms than the registration statistics tell us we are . Which will go some way to explaining why the manufacturers appear to be doing better than the unit sales numbers would suggest , especially in terms of the migration of momentum in favour of the European manufacturers , while the majority of aftermarket vendors are reporting positive results .
2001 59.33 percent of new PTW registrations were categorised as In “ motorcycles ”. By 2005 that had grown to 65.57 percent ; by 2008 it had declined
again to 61.52 percent . What has followed since would , at first sight , appear to be counter-intuitive . As sales declined throughout the downturn , the percentage decreases were greatest in low value unit terms , with higher price , larger displacement machines taking a growing percentage of the PTW registrations that were taking place . By 2013 , when the market reached its nadir , the share of total PTW sales being taken by larger displacement , higher value machines had grown to a 12 year high of 66.62 percent , and in the three years since , the three years of growth , that increasing share of higher price machines has continued to grow , and as of the end of 2016 stands at an unprecedented 77.23 percent of new PTW registrations . Conventional wisdom would tell us that a return to growth would initially be seen at lower price points , but in the case of the motorcycle industry the trend is the opposite – inexorably away from lower displacement , socalled “ entry level ” machines ( despite the growth of the “ Urban Mobility ” culture ). It would appear that we are locked into a trend towards higher price , more powerful machines being the primary growth market . This also goes against the conventional concerns expressed about the market ’ s dependence on a mid-40s demographic , the apparent issues surrounding attracting youth entrants , and the commonly held preconceptions about the impacts of the changes that have been in-play in licensing and training terms . Are we seeing convention being overturned by an older , better trained entry point and ever growing concentration of available sales in the hands of older riders whose incomes permit higher price point entry or re-entry ?
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world . com