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When change is not change at all
" May you live in interesting times " is a widely cited phrase often referred to as an " ancient Chinese curse," though it is not actually of Chinese origin, but rather an English-derived idiom. It implies a time of political turmoil, uncertainty, and chaos, viewing such tumultuous eras as a curse rather than a blessing. Well, for sure these are just exactly that- " interesting times " though not in a good way- " interesting " for all the wrong reasons- bad reasons not good ones. But isn ' t always thus? Hasn ' t always been this way? It ' s hard to look back over the last sixty years or so without having the sense that all times have been " interesting ", and, no doubt, prior generations, going back millennia, have always thought the same too. Maybe the primary difference is that, in the past 25 years, since electronic " media " started to shape our perceptions of the bubble in which we live, am I alone in feeling that the rate of change has been accelerating? Am I alone in thinking that the inherent jeopardy locked into that ever-increasing rate of change makes it hard ' to see the good for the trees '? Am I alone in thinking that the latest turn of the ever accelerating and ever worsening wheel of change that we ' re enduring is just offthe-scale awful and stupid? Back at the day job, a lot of the commentary about the 2025 registration statistics is now starting to be exposed for the illinformed, superficial, strategically challenged nonsense it clearly always was. The really stupid thing is that we have seen it all before. Every time there is a ' pre-reg ' drama when there is regulatory transition, we see the same failure to realise that the motorcycles concerned are still sitting on showroom floors and still going to make someone very happy. And it has happened yet again. The sudden reversal in apparent industry trend seen magically, overnight from December 31, 2025 to 1 January 2026 is dues to someone throwing " I must buy a motorcycle " pill into the world ' s water supply, it isn ' t due to a sudden and unforeseen overnight recovery from some " depth of despond " recession, and it sure as heck isn ' t a result of a sudden improvement in the really rather dismal standards of the motorcycle market ' s sales and marketing standards. Oh, how I wish it were to do with something that simple, but no. Much of what was written and said last year was misguided and misleading; ill-informed and ill considered. The swirl of events and negatives that are storming around us mean it is no ' shooin ' that the 2026 full year will see any of the early year registrations statistics momentum maintained. The present positivity may well end up crumbling to dust, smouldering in ashes as those that multiple nations and dumb enough to vote for prove that politicians, like children, should not be trusted with sharp scissors. It was Winston Churchill who is famously quoted as saying that " Democracy is the worst system of government, except for all the others ". We must hope that it is the present drift towards authoritarianism and corruption that ends up smouldering in ashes, but if we are all going to hell in hand basket let ' s all at least do it on a motorcycle! Two months into the year and the number of citizens who will do that, ride off
swirl of events and negatives
into whatever our uncertain destinies are in store for us on a motorcycle increased by 38.66 % in the first two months of the year in Germany; by 17.23 % in January and February in the UK; + 13.93 % in Italy in Q1 and by a massive + 26.88 % in the first three months in Spain. Hurrah! Some surprising / y good news, positive news, awesome news. But just as the Euro5 / Euro5 + transition triggered 2024 year-end triggered pre-registrations distorted the end of 2024 data and first half( especially) 2025 data, so too the drama will now play out by exaggerating the degree of market growth we will see in 2026( first half especially). As we lap the January to June 2025 data, data that lacks several tens of thousands of sales of those 2024 pre-registered bikes- creating a void that will now inflate the apparent 2026 market performances. Don ' t be fooled- just sayin '! The recessionary pressures that made 2025 feel like a bad year in business terms, those same pressures that had made 2024 feel bad, 2023 feel bad etc., have not gone way. They are all still there. From War in Ukraine to Trumpian Tariffs. From inflation and interest rates that still remain stubbornly high to wage rates, disposable income and consumer confidence levels that all remain stubbornly low, they are all still ' out there ' and all continuing to drag on likely economic performances and outcomes. But hey, just in case everybody was getting comfortable and adjusting to the problems they knew about, why don ' t we make these times even more interesting by throwing another unknown unknown into the mix. Why only have one major war when two will do! In the context of what ' s going on at present, trying to ' hang a hook ' on industry data like our own looks pretty irrelevant, frankly. Sorry to ' diss ' the apparent good news, sorry to ' rain on our parade ' but( especially after the rank vendor amateurism I witnessed at EICMA last year) it just does not appear to me at all likely that we are anywhere near a brave new dawn of explosive demand. The advantages that PTWs bring to the public ' s tables should be compelling. From their comparative environmental benefits to commuting efficiency and economy. From the joy of riding to the ever-evolving ergonomics and creature comforts, from to safety improvements to operating costs like gasoline consumption, as they years go by one thinks that we should be edging ever closer to a new riding ' Golden Age '. But like any promise of ' interesting times ' imbued by the " right reasons ", such a vision remains a stubbornly far away dot on the horizon. There is always something, or some combination of somethings that make that temptingly bright and sunny future appear just as delusionary as ever. All too often in recent years the toxic cocktail of reasons for the delay in the arrival of the promised land involves increasing numbers of innocent people having to die.
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world. com