' the Elephant in the room '
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Foxtrot, Uniform, Bravo, Alpha, Romeo
The IVM, the motorcycle trade association in Germany, reports new motorcycle registrations for February 2025 as down by-46.28 percent at 6,333 units, with January down by-51.15 %( 2,167 units). That follows a theoretical German market performance of + 203.06 % in November 2024( 11,274 units, in a month that usually sees around 3,000 / 4,000 registrations, and a theoretical market performance of + 628.10 %( 18,188 units) in December- a month where 2,000 to 3,000 is more usual. Now, it isn ' t rocket science to realise that the statistics are somewhat ' off ', that something weird is going on here. That ' weird ' is, of course, the 2024 year-end rush to pre-register unsold motorcycle that did not meet the Euro 5 +( Plus) regulations version that came into effect at the start of January this year. The early 2025 IVM registration numbers for January and February this year show a market that appears to have lost some 8,000 unit sales compared to the corresponding months of 2024- that is around 50 % of its new model sales. Of course, that is not what has happened. Those missing sales are in fact sat in the over inflated numbers reported for the final quarter of 2024. For us here at IDN this is a problem that we always face whenever there is a regulatory update. This is the third or fourth time in the past 10 or 12 years that this cycle of regulatory change has made yearon-year market comparisons impossible at this stage of the year This time round it is rather more of a problem that it usually is because now more than ever, we really, really do need to know how we are doing. Our market has been doing relatively well in recent years, especially in the context of the winds of potential downturn that have been blowing in our direction- from global pandemic to supply chain inflation, from war Europe to a resulting energy crisis that triggered a perfect storm of inflationary pressures- one that brought many European markets close to recession. This challenge to statistical analysis is why, for this edition only, we are not publishing our usual ' StatZONE ' analysis on pages six and seven. We know it is a much anticipated and needed ' required reading ' part of the industry service that International Dealer News provides, and this is the first time since the Covid chaos of 2020 that we have not been able to publish the latest ' major market ' new model registration statistics in our usual format. Don ' t assume that my focus on Germany as meaning that it has been a German market only problem. In the face of widespread domestic economic negativity and social upheaval, the positive motorcycle market performance there in 2023 and 2024 means that Germany represents a very interesting test case. One that has shown that motorcycle sales can still prosper in the face of economic uncertainty. In Italy for example, January, February and March were similarly reported as ' down '. By-25.78 %( 6,964 units),-28.23 %( 9,509 units) and by-14.81 %( at 14,854 units) in March. It is too early to know whether or not the apparent ' improvement ' in March represents the start of a process of statistical recovery, but it looks like a good sign. The UK market has been similarly negatively impacted, with January reported at
' the Elephant in the room '
-30.41 % and February at-32.94 %. It is Spain that is the most interesting though. Does the fact that the 2024 end-of year pre-registrations in Spain have not, in fact, resulted in such absurd statistical anomalies point to there being hope that 2025 is destined to be another good year? In the Spanish market and elsewhere in Europe? In January the Spanish market was reported as being down by-11.67 %( 13,638 units) and by-8.48 % in February( 13,945 units). But it was actually up by + 9.20 % in March( 17,677 units). Hurrah! Either way, the real ' Elephant in the Room ' at this stage is, of course, tariffs. I am writing this piece the morning after President Trump celebrated what he modestly described as one of the most important days in the history of the United States- ' Liberation Day '. Trump is right about one thing. April 2, 2025, will indeed prove to be a significant day in the history of his country. In all likelihood though, not in the way that we anticipates. It was the day when he and his motley crew decided to gamble with a perfectly good( indeed strong) US economy and, potentially, flush it down the toilet. Many economists and Wall Street analysts have been describing the US economy of 2024 as " thriving ", with " strong growth ", falling interest rates, falling inflation a full labour market. Until earlier this year, the NYSE certainly thought so. There is so much that could( and probably should) be said about what has already been going on this year, and we are only in the spring. But not only is there not enough space to do so( fortunately), it wouldn ' t make any difference anyway. At this stage we just don ' t know the detail of how this is going to play out or how bad it could be. Trying to make forecasts, never mind draw conclusions would simply be a futile endeavour at this time. One thing is certain though. The global nature of supply chains mean that product affordability and availability is not going to improve. Tariffs are designed to reduce consumption, not increase it. The target is the behaviours of the consumers of the county imposing them, not the dynamics of the exporters selling to them. Unless there is a characteristically Trumpian volte-face, this is not a story that ends well. There are hundreds of investment analysts even in his own country who say there is no point trying to understand what the President is trying to do as he doesn ' t understand it himself. Until the U. S. Presidential election result swept like a tsunami of doom around aisles of EICMA in November 2024, most vendors I spoke with thought that it was quite likely that we were going to see another good motorcycle and P & A / G & A market here in Europe in 2025. At this stage though, especially in the absence of reliable new model registration statistics, all we can do is hope for the best but expect and plan for the worst.
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world. com