Are we really trying to win ?
It feels a bit ' off ' to be talking about routine matters such as the registration stats for the start of the year while freedom and democracy are still under assault here on our own continent . For the record though , motorcycle sales have started well in 2022 - possibly in response to the spikes in petrol prices as much as anything else . Those price increases are not , or at least were not initially ( or principally ), triggered by the war in Ukraine . However , as the conflict looks set to deepen and lengthen , it might well be that - rather like the effects of the pandemic on consumer attitudes to urban mobility in 2020 - the motorcycle market in 2022 could again be an unwitting beneficiary . This time as international wholesale petroleum prices continue to harden in response to supply uncertainties as well as increased demand . The latest new motorcycle registrations data available from the national trade associations for four of Europe ' s ' Big Five ' markets ( which between them account for some 80 % of annual registrations ) show 2022 starting strongly . For once , the comparables are not distorted by any ( or certainly not many ) regulatory issues . The start of 2021 was impacted by the final stages of the long drawn-out transition from Euro 4 to 5 - one that affected two or three year ends . At press time , we had January and February data for Italy , Germany and the UK , and January to March ( Q1 ) data for Spain . In the case of all , except Germany , the start of 2022 is up on the beginning of 2021 , up on the start of 2020 , up on the start of 2019 ( crucially ) and equally significantly ahead of any comparable period since the financial crisis triggered a meltdown in the period between 2007 and 2013 . In the case of Germany , so far this year the market is up over 2021 ( by better than 22 % in fact ), but still down by around 1,500 units over 2020 and some 500 units over 2019 . That said , the start to this year has still been the third best in Germany in more than a decade . In the interests of completeness , the Spanish market for Q1 is up by nearly 17 %, in Italy by nearly 26 %, and Germany by better than 22 % - with the UK data clearly being anomalous , posting + 76.30 % for the first two months of 2022 after recording a massive and much delayed Euro 5 statistical hit at the start of 2021 ; with Brexit issues also complicating everything to do with UK statistics at that point - for all markets and industries . Leaving the detail in the wing mirror , any way you look at it , the data represents a whole bunch more helmet , apparel , boots and glove sales volume for dealers and their vendors , and a nice increase in the ' Park ' for interval service and , eventually , repair and upgrade spending . Up is up at the end of the day , and up is good . We like up ! All that said , the most certain of certainties remains the age-old time-honoured cliché that uncertainty is the only thing we can be sure about . There is no telling how the war in Ukraine is going to play out , but there is no such thing as a " good " outcome for anyone in such circumstances - for either of the combatants nor for anybody else . As yet , the effects of conflict contagion are unknown , and probably won ' t be fully understood until some time after the conflict is resolved . Whatever the end does look like and whenever that comes , for sure there will be contagion of some kind . There always is . reserve me a place at the barricade
This is no Syria or Sudan , no Afghanistan , Iraq or Libya . It isn ' t even directly comparable in continental European terms to the Balkans mash-up when Yugoslavia dissolved into rivalry and anarchy . Compared to the other conflicts we have seen around the world in the past three or four decades , there are some similarities though . That sequence of wars in Europe started out as conflict between what had been provinces of an artificially unified single Balkan mega-state . It was here in our midst in Europe , and it too was an example of the failure of the parties on either side of the Cold War to resolve opposing ideologies and world views . The West may have thought it had won the war , but even thirty years on , it certainly has still not yet managed to win the peace . Personally , I have always been ' bullish ' where defence of democratic and liberal values are concerned , where freedom is concerned - reserve me a place at the barricade ! You don ' t have to be a PhD student of history to understand that it is generally as much the interests of trade that have taken us into wars as anything else , and those same interests are what generally , eventually , takes us out of them too . It is wealth that has driven successful outcomes where nationalist , ideological or imperial rivalries have been concerned . They who spend most , win most . Western politicians are often guilty of not giving the production of surplus the place of primacy in the affairs of man that it warrants . While it is good to see the " allies " reaching for the spreadsheets before the shells this time round , as with pregnancy , war is something in which trying to be a little bit successful is not a viable strategy . Every time the EU , NATO , UN , G7 / G20 talk about applying even more sanctions against the aggressor , my unfiltered automatic reaction is to ask why we left anything on the table in the first place ? The weaker we are , the higher the number of people who will end up paying the ultimate price and the harder ( and more expensive ) it will be to stabilise the world once it is over . There are no quick , easy single answers , but it is utterly beholden on the world to find the most effective combination of answers and apply them to the max - and do so as quickly as possible - and that includes boots on the ground and planes in the air if there is no other way of ending it quickly . Yes , switching off the flow of gas and oil , minerals and ores , coal and grain will be expensive - but time is money , and the sooner we embrace what it takes to get this ended , whatever that is , then the sooner we ' ll be able to get back to selling all parties our bright and shiny things . If we think trying to win is expensive in terms of lives , treasure expended and potential bigger picture risk is concerned , it will be as nothing compared to failing to win .
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world . com