2021 - The story so far
Well , a third straight edition of IDN without our customary and much relied upon new motorcycle registrations statistics reporting , I ' m afraid . As announced , we continue to publish such new registration data that does become available in our MotoWEEK Newsletter editions , blog posts and so forth , but until we are seeing data that is lapping this year ' s registration statistics , then while the totals are , of themselves , instructive , the trend data is meaningless , confusing even . We continue to see recovery in the market ( there is no question that the motorcycle market in Europe is headed in the right direction ), but it is important that we don ' t allow complacency to build based on incomplete analysis and weak comparisons . It is interesting to note that the OEM manufacturers themselves are now starting to point to 2019 comparables as the best way to realistically assess their performance , and this is something that we argued for back in the April / May edition . What we do know , as at press time , is that the motorcycle market in Germany is essentially flat for the year-to-date , with new motorcycle registrations up fractionally at + 0.72 % to 71,384 units for the first six months of this year compared to 2020 . However , at 75,237 registrations for the first six months of 2019 , the 2021 German motorcycle market is still lagging - although it is ahead of 2017 and approximately level with 2018 . For June motorcycle registrations were up by + 10 % in Germany over 2020 ( 15,422 units ). In total PTW terms , Germany was up + 6.53 % in June at 27,390 as the licence changes start to restore the youth and lower cc markets . The total German PTW market was up by + 3.61 % at 114,867 units for the first six months . However , Germany appears to be somewhat of a statistical ' outlier ' as Italy , Spain , the UK and , as far as we can tell , France , are all up . For the record , the ' Big Five ' national markets between them account for at least 80 % of the total European market volume - EU and non-EU . In the case of France , the trade association there ( CSIAM ) doesn ' t appear to have updated its statistical reporting ( certainly not outside of its membership footprint ) since reporting its 2019 full year data in February 2020 . At that point it announced that the French market for ICE and electric motorcycles combined was worth some 185,000 units in 2019 , which was up by + 12 % over 2018 . Using a slightly different statistical model , when ACEM reported first quarter data for 2021 ( in May ) it cited the French market as having been + 15.1 % ( 44,691 units January to March 2021 ) compared to -11.8 % ( 38,839 units ) for the first quarter of 2020 , with the French market having been -3.3 % for the full year 2020 ( 181,231 units ). New motorcycle registrations in Italy were basically flat in June (+ 0.38 % at 16,951 units ), having been + 44.26 % for May ( 16,099 units ). Indeed , four out of the six months so far in Italy in 2020 are reported as having been up ( some of them wildly so as the numbers lap the collapse in sales in some months in the second quarter of 2020 ), with the YTD + 54.95 % at 74,541 units compared to the first six months of 2020 . more than a COVID bounce ?
Indeed , the Italian market appears to be the only one of Europe ' s five ' majors ' where 2021 YTD market performance is not only ahead of the first six months of 2020 , but also convincingly ahead of 2019 and prior years . The market had understandably collapsed to just 48,108 units for the first half of 2020 , but this year is well ahead of the 63,102 motorcycle unit sales recorded for the comparable period of 2019 , with 2021 YTD comfortably the best first six months in Italy since before the 2008 financial crisis . In total PTW terms , Italy is + 55.70 % compared to the first half of 2020 at 166,551 units ( and the 138,902 units sold in the first half of 2019 ). By the time you read this , the Spanish statistics for July will probably have been released ( ANESDOR is always the quickest out with its data capture results ), but for June the motorcycle market in Spain was -11.59 % at 18,622 units ( having been + 55.59 % for May at 15,742 units ); it is reported at + 25.61 % for the first six months at 81,990 units , which is still some 6,500 units behind the first six months of 2019 . In 2021 total PTW terms , the Spanish market was + 24.47 % YTD at 90,639 units ( compared to 72,821 in 2020 and 97,277 in 2019 ). In the UK June was + 11.67 % at 13,981 units , with the YTD for the first six months running at + 31.41 % ( 54,405 units )
- still down by approximately 2,000 units over the first six months of 2019 . The days of sales of over 200,000 such units to Europe were last seen in 2007 - 21st century imports from the Japanese home market factories having peaked in 2000 ( 271,828 units ). In theory , ACEM full year 2020 data shows key European markets as having seen 883,102 motorcycle registrations in 2020 , compared to 874,774 in 2019 . However , estimates suggest that at least 30,000 , possibly as many as 60,000 of those , were Euro 4 / 5 transition pre-registrations that distorted the data . Net of those pre-registered motorcycles , European registrations had still recovered surprisingly well in the second half of 2020 . The big question that I posed at the start of this year though was whether the market bounce was more than just the making back of lost sales , or whether it could be genuinely new growth as especially more commuters abandon mass transit systems . Would it be of a scale that would convincingly see PTWs genuinely gain ground over and above pre-pandemic levels as a long-term transport solution of greater choice than before ? With the late 2020 data having been so distorted by Euro 4 / 5 transition preregistrations , it may remain some three or four years before we know for sure , in statistical terms . That said though , the possibility is still alive ( as seen in the data we do have ) that the renewed spotlight thrown onto the social isolation and environmental advantages of PTWs might finally stick .
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world . com