Market growth is being held back
Following my " Sad Story " piece about motorcycle registration statistics in the last edition , it is a case of ' déjà vu all over again ' with this month ' s market numbers ( as Yogi Berra put it !). We have had to drop our usually comprehensive and , we know , much valued statistical reports from around Europe ' s markets as the wild variations being seen in the data gathering again render the numbers unreliable - with any conclusions drawn from the trend data likely to be misleading . The reasons , again , are the anomalies arising from the rush to pre-register Euro 4 inventory as the final , extended , deadline for registration of unsold Euro 4 inventory loomed at a time of increasing inventory shortages . Any unsold Euro 4 units that did not meet the strict timescale criteria set by the EU for the end of series derogation that was approved in advance of Euro 5 final implementation would have , in effect , been unsellable as of January 1st . As we start to lap the registrations data of March 2020 and beyond , the wild variations triggered simply make any meaningful analysis impossible . The trade associations continue ( mostly ) to release monthly registrations information and those can be seen in the online editions of MotoWEEK , the IDN newsletter / blog . The service will be restored to our print edition as soon as the data permits ! In the meantime , the headline news , the one single , simple fact that we can rely on is that , given the circumstances , the industry is doing well . Indeed , the primary challenge at present is inventory shortage - triggered by a perfect storm of continuing reverberations from last year ' s factory closures , high demand , materials shortages and other supply chain challenges and price inflation pressures , shipping costs and logistical issues such as container hoarding and freight scheduling ! It has to be remembered though , that much of the current demand is from delayed buying and consumers eying the advantages of PTWs as a commuting solution of choice for ongoing self-isolation reasons . The ACEM statistics for 2020 theoretically showed the market as being + 1.1 % for total PTW registrations in Europe ' s ' Big-5 markets . Net of the pre-registered Euro 4 machines ( at least 50,000 total PTW units in the ' Big-5 ' markets ), the real market performance is more likely to be around -3 % or -4 %. That is purely an informed guesstimate though , because the way the data is now being harvested and reported makes precision impossible . If it is anywhere near accurate , then I think we ' d all agree that , given what has been happening , then it is a very good result . We do have access to data for some of the major markets , and within the tolerances of the data gathering and reporting variables , it looks like we are seeing genuine growth over 2020 - but not yet of sufficient numbers to catch up with 2019 in all markets ; Italy is the honourable exception . In total PTW terms , the Italian data to the end of May 2021 ( from ANCMA ) shows the Italian market at 127,324 units ( up + 87.7 % compared to 2020 ), and for Spain the figure through May is 69,854 units ( up + 39.07 %), also through May . For Germany , the data shows growth of + 6.31 % compared to 2020 at 64,549 units for January through April , and for the UK , total PTW registrations are put at + 16.95 %, also through April ( 29,558 units ). Clearly the Italian figure is a COVID catch-up drive aberration , and the other
an informed guess
percentages also reflect lapping the lockdown sales results from mid-March onwards last year , so can ' t be assumed to yet represent ' boom time ' for a dealer community that is having to look for new inventory down the back of the sofa . At peak selling time too ! In three out of those four cases , the data for the four or five month periods reported so far for 2021 still lags the corresponding periods in 2019 and in most cases , seriously so . Another insight comes from the data for Japanese made PTWs being exported to Europe from the domestic Honda , Yamaha , Kawasaki and Suzuki factories . For the period to April 2021 , total PTW exports to Europe are said to have been up by + 12.58 % at 82,130 units for the first four months of 2021 . That compares to 72,995 units for the same period in 2020 and 73,509 for 2019 . Clearly , the inventory coming into Europe is Euro 5 compliant and represents a modest production bounce in data that has been headed south in an apparent death spiral ever since 2004 . All this is playing out against a background of ferocious aftermarket vendor consolidation . The major distributors ( especially ) are seeking to add to critical mass . Breda , Netherlands based Parts Distribution Group ( PDG - the Hoco Parts and DC Afam owner ) has had a voracious appetite , having been especially acquisitive in the UK . Its latest deal saw the acquisition of Dutch custom parts giant Motorcycle Storehouse . Meanwhile , with the backing of the family-controlled Kontich , Belgium based Alcopa concern , BIHR - the Bartenheim , France based distribution business ( founded in 1975 by Cyrille Bihr ) - has also been busy in the UK . The Moto Direct / RST apparel owner recently added off-road strength in depth , buying Race FX and announced that it had acquired 100 % of the shares in Hamburg based Paaschburg & Wunderlich just as this edition was closing for press . The market sentiment is that this is a process that has not finished yet . Further acquisitions will be confirmed in the next 24 to 36 months , as distributors , manufacturers and brand owners look to strengthen their access to international markets and diversify product ranges . The underlying equity that many such deals are focused on acquiring at this time is access to dealer networks and logistics capacity . Brick and mortar showroom floor real estate and online mail order platform storefronts are the reserve currency of the 21st century as we head towards our glorious electric future . In which connection , do go back and read our February / March report about the work of the Connected Motorcycle Consortium if you missed it , and check out our ' Tipping Point ' news feature by Ben Purvis - and the report about new Honda President Toshihiro Mibe ' s first speech - both in this edition .
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world . com