Registrations statistics - a sad story !
After the remarkable year that the motorcycle industry had in 2020 , in new model registration terms , this year has not started well . It is understandable . In pandemic impact terms , we appear to be back in March and April 2020 territory - and at the time of writing , Wave III is washing across the land , making it highly likely that we haven ' t seen the worst of it yet . What was remarkable about last year was that not only had the market losses of the spring been largely recovered by the end of the year , but most of the major markets actually recorded growth , ridiculously high growth in some cases - and that was the clue ! In an outbreak of Euro 3 / 4 Crossover Syndrome revisited , the December 31st deadline for regulation-busting pre-registrations of otherwise unsellable Euro 4 inventory ( in advance of final Euro 5 implementation ) has , again , distorted the registration statistics . Apparent sales in the final quarter of 2020 were artificially boosted , robbing the first quarter of 2021 ( at least ) of many of the new registrations that would otherwise have been a guide as to just well ( or not ) the early 2021 market was doing . Add to that the again deepening effects of the coronavirus pandemic , as national governments and international organisations continue to be blinded by the glare while failing to be guided by the science , and it is hard to draw any other conclusion than that the market for new PTWs in Europe is in decline again . Throughout the second half of 2020 I repeatedly said ( in print , in emails and by phone , Zoom and smoke signals ) that nobody should get carried away , either way , and that we would know the answer to the ultimate question about the fate of the market in 2021 by March , but not until March . Writing this piece on March 31st , it is hard to look at the prospects for market weather for the coming year ( or two ) through any lens other than the one marked " cloud and rain ". The questions I had been raising in 2020 were whether or not we were fooling ourselves to think that , all of a sudden , two-wheel transport and leisure activity was an idea whose time had come , and , even if the growth did sustain to the end of 2020 ( which it did ), would it sustain into 2021 ( which it has not ). There were other negative issues at play this past winter too , such as bad weather , postponed shows and simple lack of consumer access to showrooms . Regardless of the siren voices that are predicting the end of trade fairs as we knew them , anybody who doesn ' t realise that fundamentally we still need them is just plain wrong . Inventory issues , and the logistics chain problems that have had much to do with furnished whole good availability , have also now started to affect registrations too . In most markets , many dealers were already short of motorcycles through the second half of 2020 , but the problem has to be worsening now . Alternatively , those showrooms that do have nice shiny new models awaiting the lustful caress of admiring consumers will be racking up losses as flooring finance plans transition from opportunity to overhead . The new ways of selling ( online , drop-off test rides , home delivery , lease / purchase etc .) have all helped , and will continue to do so , but at the end of the day , the motorcycle industry ( commuting and leisure riding alike ) is a visceral experience and there is no substitute for letting the customer experience the goods before spending the money . cloud and rain ?
All things considered , we are sat in the middle of a perfect storm of uncertainty . That said , in the context of the Third Wave , the distorted registration statistics are the least of our problems , of course . However , it is worth reminding ourselves what ACEM said about its 2020 data for the ' Big Five ' markets in Europe ( Italy , France , Germany , Spain and the UK ). " In aggregate , the largest European markets for motorcycles and mopeds recovered after spring , reaching an overall increase of + 4 % compared to 2019 data , although with different results across the countries . Some , such as the Netherlands (+ 30.3 %) and Germany (+ 27 %), registered substantial increases , while others , such as Italy ( - 5.3 %) and Spain ( -8.8 %), still lag behind 2019 figures ." For the first time in years , Germany exceeded Italy in registration terms for the year ! ACEM acknowledged the problems with its data , correctly stating that " generally speaking , the market progressively recovered in the second half of the year , although positive figures in late 2020 are also partly linked to pre-registrations performed by importers and dealers due to the end of validity of Euro 4 approvals ( 31 December 2020 ), for production falling outside end of series provisions . " Looking at full-year 2020 results , a total of 883,102 motorcycles were registered in 2020 in the five largest European markets . This represents a marginal increase of + 1 % compared to 2019 numbers ." The largest motorcycle markets in Europe in 2020 were : Germany ( 220,304 units ), Italy ( 218,027 units ) and France ( 191,231 units ). The largest European moped markets ( i . e . Belgium , France , Germany , Italy , the Netherlands and Spain ) rose from 246,345 units in 2019 to 279,841 in 2020 . This represents an increase of 13.6 % on a yearon-year basis . The largest markets for mopeds in Europe were France ( 98,592 units ), the Netherlands ( 84,732 units ) and Germany ( 35,010 units ). What we now wait to find out , is whether or not ACEM Secretary General Antonio Perlot was right when he said that " to a large extent market recovery was due to the renewed attractiveness and convenience of powered two-wheelers for urban and peri-urban commuting within a sanitary context in which public transportation has not been deemed a safe option by many citizens ." If that proves to be a sustainable shift in transport culture , then great . But will it prove to be so ? The European ( EU ) bike park continues to be in the region of 36 million units , which means that around 10 % of the adult population in Europe ride a PTW of some kind at least some of the time , even if it is only occasionally riding a motorcycle or scooter they simply have access to . That is not insubstantial , so are we on the threshold of a brave new world in which PTWs ( ICE , E , Hybrid or both / all three ) really move centre stage ? Do not underestimate the importance of the work being done by the Connected Motorcycle Consortium ( IDN # 159 ) and by the newly established Swappable Battery Consortium .
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world . com
4 INTERNATIONAL DEALER NEWS - APRIL / MAY 2021 www . idnmag . com