Do we have herd immunity yet ?
As the international motorcycle industry continues to surf
the waves of the pandemic , the fear of wipe-out is never far away . Regardless of how many waves we are destined to endure , when it comes to how they impact the motorcycle industry , we have to accept that sooner or later one of them will have rocks in it . At present , based on reports from readers and customers , and the latest available data from ACEM and the individual national motorcycle industry trade associations around Europe , signs are that motorcycle industry new unit sales remain surprisingly robust . We may be dented and bruised , but it could have been oh so worse ! Indeed , in many markets sales so far in 2020 are up well over the corresponding period of 2019 - showing actual growth . Is it sustainable ? To be brutally honest , I don ' t think any of us really know if anything is sustainable anymore and I still reckon that those who think they have the answers are not understanding the questions . In theory , there is now enough evidence to suggest that the powerful ' two-wheels mean environmentally and time and cost-saving commuting convenience ' message may finally be getting through . It is ironic that mass transit systems are now being seen as a potential part of the problem and that the perfect social distancing of a two-wheel commute now has an upper hand . As Antonio Perlot , the Secretary General of ACEM , said recently though , it is all about balance . He has called on transport policy makers and regulators to ensure that PTWs are included in a balanced diet of futurefacing policy solutions . Indeed , the argument that needs to be made is that PTWs should be seen as an integral part of the transport mix , not just part of a temporary pandemic fix . ACEM and the national trade associations are well aware of this and are making every effort to grasp this opportunity to make the ' two wheels good ' message stick permanently . If the current market bounce is down to commuter and wider consumer group response to the health emergency , then great , but we need local , regional and national transport authorities to redouble their preparedness and efforts to deliver on the EU ' s pledge to ensure that motorcycles , scooters and mopeds are indeed protected and promoted as part of future-facing transport initiatives . What we will have to wait and see , however , is whether the present market buoyancy does sustain once everyone is vaccinated and herd immunity to COVID-19 established to see if the motorcycle industry ' s products now also have herd immunity - to see if PTW use is elevated to another level and can kick-on from what we are seeing at present . It could go either way , of course . Once a sufficient percentage of the population is protected from the coronavirus , it may be that a lot of potential customers ( new and returnees , youth and older ) heave a collective sigh of relief and reach for their rail and bus passes again without fear . Right across Europe one is hearing opinions from both sides of the debate , indicating that it could go either way . If anything , the " everything will be different in the land of new normal " tribe of optimists appear to outnumber the " not so much , we ' ll all revert to type " brigade of realists . However , having been around this block so often before , having seen so many false
integral part of the transport mix
dawns for the motorcycle market since the late 1980s , I guess I am a tad less convinced so far . Yes , there are promising signs , but show me the lines of vast millions of enthusiastic new customers beating down the doors of their local motorcycle store two or three years from now , and then I would be prepared to become a true believer . Sadly , life isn ' t like that , and Genies never do go back into bottles . There was a time 60 , 70 years ago when it appeared that manufacturers could sell all the motorcycles they could make ( or so it seems to those who weren ' t there ), a time when the unit numbers were eye-watering and the prices of new and used machines just as ( relatively ) high as they are now . But the issues that the motorcycle industry has been grappling with for a decade now , issues of demographics , youth entry and competing calls on time and money , have not gone away . Those issues never will go away , they can only get tougher for markets like ours - especially as the end of the road for the internal combustion engine looms ever larger . Electric motorcycles , scooters and mopeds will and do already have their own very specific appeal , but as yet there is precious little evidence to suggest that the huge demand that conventional ICE units generate for service and performance items , for personalisation and multiple gear and apparel combinations in a well-stocked home garage will have any parallel . PTWs may cease to be a lifestyle consumer discretionary product altogether and become part instead of just another part of the energy industry , the consumer electronics market and transport infrastructure provision instead . Maybe it is being locked down again that is making me gloomy in the face of such excellent statistical evidence for a bright future . Maybe it is fear of being disappointed . Either way , I have always believed that if something looks too good to be true , then it almost certainly is . On the other hand , it is true that , especially under the circumstances , our industry is doing well - at least in new registration numbers , and we are seeing pre-owned unit prices harden in most European markets . Indeed , as I said last edition , inventory appears to be the primary foot on our hosepipe and in that context the extra time to sell Euro 4 models is great news . Rather than needing to wait two or three years , actually , I still believe that we need to get into the start of the spring selling season to see what a longer term picture looks like . If sales do sustain deep into 2021 , as , hopefully , the pandemic eases , then in all likelihood there is a long-term benefit to our industry in play and , personally , despite my apparent doubts , I do think that 2021 will be a good year - and that it should then give us a foundation to build on for a few years more , even if the eventual impact of the ICE bans means the future of the motorcycle and parts , accessory and G & A market as we know it , is , ultimately , time limited .
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world . com
4 INTERNATIONAL DEALER NEWS - DECEMBER 2020 / JANUARY 2021 www . idnmag . com