Dude , where ' s my inventory ?
Not everybody will be suffering from inventory shortages , and
my apologies if this doesn ' t apply to you ( I feel your pain ), but , in general most of the reports reaching us here at International Dealer News from franchise dealerships in continental Europe ' s major markets ( Germany , France , Spain , Italy in particular , but others too ) suggest that there are new unit inventory shortages . Indeed , it isn ' t only affecting new PTW units - we are hearing the same from some of the major aftermarket parts , accessory , gear and apparel importers and distributors too . With regard to motorcycles , there was something striking in the latest Japanese made + 250 cc motorcycle exports to Europe statistics from JAMA for July and August . Exports of units made in Japan by the Japanese manufacturers ( as opposed to those coming here from their factories elsewhere ) had started to grow again following the peak pandemic effects . The year actually started well with exports to European subsidiaries , distributors and dealers actually growing strongly in January and February at + 26.57 % and + 15.69 % respectively in January and February ( 21,266 and 23,709 units ) before dropping to + 3.67 in March ( but still at 20,769 units despite the world effectively only having half a month in commercial terms ) and before falling off a cliff at -60.58% in April ( 5,688 units ) and -84.87% ( 1,285 units ) in May . June then saw an uptick , albeit only to 3,713 units , with the rate of decline reversing as consumers started to emerge from their lockups , blinking into the summer sunshine ( - 49.22 % for June was still a bad number , but the direction of travel was better ). As this edition of IDN went to press , the most recent available statistics from the automotive trade association in Japan , which includes representation of motorcycle manufacturers among its membership , showed the progress in retreat again in July at -62.04 %/ 3,066 units , but showing less decline again in August . There may well be fairly logical reasons for this - to do with simple shipping issues , number of days in the month , production lags and so on , but it still means that there having been over 65,000 new motorcycles of + 250 cc received in Europe from Japan in the first quarter , there were only some 8,000 received in the period from April 1st to June 30th - covering the period when the opportunities to sell and the new sales modalities adopted by dealers ( online , home delivery etc .) were just starting to yield results . This would mean that existing inventories were being depleted without being replaced - ergo a shortage of metal . Of course , even among the four domestic Japanese manufacturers , units are only part of the story , and other manufacturing countries are available . China ' s manufacturing industry started to ramp up pretty quickly ( though there have been and remain to be container capacity issues ), and output at BMW , the KTM Group , Ducati and Piaggio Group factories had started to recover strongly in June , as reflected in the Q2 OE fiscal reports for the period ( see Bradley Report , pages 20 to 27 in this edition ). However , inventory shortage there certainly is , and the huge question mark hovering over whether or not the return of demand seen in summer would sustain deeper into the autumn and winter months than is usually the case already had
the stars are well aligned
enough question marks hanging over it ( second wave , unwinding of delayed pent up demand etc .) without another dimension adding to the potential causes of a softening in the demand . The primary ( if not quite the only ) factor that may see demand sustain ( assuming the inventory issues resolve quickly ) is the much speculated up game-change in consumer attitudes towards PTWs . With overcrowded , poorly ventilated and , frankly , unsanitary mass transit systems , insufficient downtown parking capacity in the face of increased demand , and a rise in car use and solus occupancy all having the potential to even further worsen urban and suburban traffic congestion , the theory runs that the age-old ' four wheels bad , two wheels good ' argument could be one whose time has finally come . The only good thing that may come out of this is that the otherwise likely glut of unsold and unsellable Euro 4 units that dealers might have otherwise been stuck with come 1st January 2021 may be somewhat reduced . The EU has introduced a derogation to the ' end of series ' process but that has not yet been approved by the EU Council or Parliament . The progress that the motorcycle industry has made in the past decade to move itself from transport policy pariah to ' favoured son ' has been exceptional . ACEM ' s new " Safe Ride to the Future 2.0 - the Motorcycle Industry ' s Safety Strategy ", published just as this edition of IDN was headed to press , is a piece of work that reflects that exact point . It sits well in a body of work that has contributed massively to seeing our industry transition to being an approved , promoted and forward-facing part of the solution instead of languishing as a perceived major part of the problem . Of course , there is still a long way to go and a lot of work to be done , but as a contribution to the European Union ' s Horizon 2030 objectives , the response that this new report has received from within the bowels of Europe ' s transport policymaking labyrinth is of itself instructive . " We commend the commitment of ACEM , and I welcome the motorcycle industry ' s road safety strategy ," said Adina Vălean , the European Commissioner for Transport . " This is great work from ACEM , and we need more strong stakeholder involvement like this at all levels ," said Matthew Baldwin , the European Coordinator for Road Safety . With consumer expectations , environmental benefits , congestion , commute efficiency , socio-economic , geo-political and , now , pandemic issues all shining a light on the transport solution known as motorcycling , it is decades since the stars have been so well aligned for our industry . It looks to me like we are going to find out a lot about our long-term future in the next six months .
Robin Bradley Publisher robin @ dealer-world . com
4 INTERNATIONAL DEALER NEWS - OCTOBER / NOVEMBER 2020 www . idnmag . com