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Yes - but is it sustainable?
Now, like any generalisation, it is just exactly that - an
averaging of a lot of different reports and perspectives,
from a lot of different markets, both in geographic and
sector terms.
However, the overwhelming number of businesses I have spoken with over the
two months since we published the last edition of IDN are reporting that they
are doing well!
I have also spoken with some who aren't, and some who are hearing the reports
from elsewhere in the market, but wondering when their share of the counterintuitive
bonanza is going to come their way, but overall (on both sides of the
Atlantic), most vendors and distributors are busy, and many, if not quite most
motorcycle shops, are also doing well.
They are certainly doing better than anybody thought would be the case when
asked back in March.
From manufacturers (BMW and KTM in particular), through to the market's
importers and distributors to multi-line and aftermarket independents, from hard
parts, performance items to gear and apparel, some of the reports I have been
hearing are breathtaking.
Depending on their brand, some of the single-line
dealerships are not doing as well as others, and there is no
question that there is a premium of Urban Mobility - from
Pedelecs, eScooters and eBikes to inexpensive small
displacement imports, Enduro machines and ADV models,
especially the increasing number of smaller cc offerings such
as the Ténéré 700.
The fear of contagion on overcrowded public transport
systems and the nightmare that is downtown parking are driving commuters
(especially) to embrace PTWs of all kinds for environmental, cost, and
convenience reasons, as well as pandemic motives.
Long may it continue - but will it? Is this 'bubble' sustainable? Or is a so-called
second wave, or the realisation that we never actually really came out of the first
one, going to make this an entirely time-limited phenomena?
Maybe those who are pointing to decisive, epochal strategic and structural
changes of how we live and work, how we balance the two, where we work,
how we work and how we invest in family and leisure time are onto something.
That there is fundamental social change in play? Actually, as I observe the world
and weigh these times against humanity's past, I'd say such prognostications
are overly optimistic at best, and in all likelihood downright wrong.
The fundamentals of human nature have never changed, and they never will -
indeed, we don't want them to. The very evolution of the species and
development of the so-called 'civil' society we are all a part of in the 21st century
depended on those fundamentals to get where we are, and we will continue to
depend on them as future generations continue the generally fruitless task of
trying to square circles.
Whilst everything changes, nothing changes - and we need that too!
The threats that the orthodox motorcycle industry faces were there before the
coronavirus escaped a Wuhan meat market, or wherever and however it did get
its passport, and those threats (are they really opportunities?) aren't going to
the next IDN
edition is a "No
Show" Special
be changed by how we succeed or fail in response to a public health emergency.
Personally, I think that the motorcycle market is in for a 'Covid Legacy' - and
(mostly) a good one.
Even if the present frenzy for new and used motorcycles and powersports vehicles
of all kinds is a short-lived boom, even if it does run out of steam and the pent
up and latent demand is satisfied, there are plenty of signals to suggest that a
lot of people will sustain their new found 'Two Wheels Good' mantra into the
medium and long-term.
And do so in sufficient numbers for us to not only make back the lost 2020 sales
but, on a two to three year timescale, see ourselves (at worst) level with where
the growth since 2016 suggests we should be by then. Indeed, it could well be
that we are not just ahead of the better than initially anticipated result we got
in 2019, not just better than the excellent market response to PTWs we saw in
January and February this year.
In fact there is every chance that some 36 months from now we could find
ourselves decisively ahead of where we might otherwise have been, and the
exposure to the environment and health friendly virtues of (especially) urban
riding may well give us a decade to remember.
At the very least it could and should put us in a way better
position to transition the bans on internal combustion
engines that will start biting towards the end of the
decade.
For me, two of the key signals are that the spending is
primarily on new (and pre-owned) bikes, and on service
items. The sales of 'units' suggest that there will be miles
being ridden. Anything that is good for the 'Bike Park' is
good for all of us. The servicing being done also speaks to
commuting miles, rather than leisure riding.
In most recessions, downturns, depressions, melt downs (use your word of
choice), money is so short that people can't buy. The kind of sums of 'helicopter'
money that governments have been sprinkling around their markets may sound
impressive, but they are not. In fact, in the EU, and in Eurozone markets in
particular, relative to the gravity of economic damage that will emerge in 2021,
the kind of sums of money that EU member states have been haggling over have
been embarrassingly, pitifully small. There will be casualties, and there is a
tsunami of unemployment headed our way.
However, if a reasonable proportion of commuter, have-to-get-to-work spend
heads our way, then maybe the PTW industry will emerge as winner. Maybe the
arguments for a future in which PTWs really are acknowledged, accepted,
promoted and imbedded as part of the solution are finally about to mature into
balance sheet drivers.
Robin Bradley
Publisher
[email protected]
4 INTERNATIONAL DEALER NEWS - AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2020 www.idnmag.com