A new U.S. intelligence estimate predicts that gains
the United States and allies have made in the Afghanistan war in the past three years will be significantly
rolled back by 2017, even if some U.S. troops remain.
The National Intelligence Estimate also predicts that
Afghanistan will quickly fall into chaos if Washington
and Kabul fail to sign a security pact to keep an international military contingent there beyond 2014.
The pact must be signed for the United States and
its allies to provide billions more dollars in aid to the
impoverished country. The classified report includes
input from the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. “In the
absence of a continuing presence and continuing financial support,” the intelligence assessment “suggests the situation would deteriorate very rapidly”.
Some officials felt the report on the potential outcome of the longest war in U.S. history was overly
pessimistic and did not take into account progress
made by Afghanistan’s security forces. “I think what
we’re going to see is a recalibration of political power,
territory and that kind of thing,” on official said, “It’s
not going to
be an inevitable rise of the Taliban.” Afghan President
Hamid Karzai has balked at signing the security pact
that would permit U.S. forces to stay in the country
beyond 2014, and U.S. officials have said that unless
a deal is reached to keep perhaps 8,000 U.S. troops,
the Taliban insurgents might stage a major comeback
and al Qaeda could regain safe havens.