Intelligence Brief 1 October issue | Page 2

                                  According   to   US   intelligence   the   march   to   a   formal   deal   with   Iran   is   steadily   growing   more   likely.   There   is   new   significant   reporting   from   European   sources   that   amplified   the   recent   information   through   CIA   sources  noting  that  Supreme  leader  Ayatollah  Khamenei  has  made  the   formal   decision   to   reach   a   development   with   the   US.     The   Iranian   objective   is   the   removal   of   the   harsh   constrictive   economic   sanctions   and  most  of  the  opposition  from  Iranian  hardliners,  primarily  the  IRGC,   that  have  opposed  a  deal  with  the  US  that  would  give  up  the  leverage   the   revolutionary   guard   has   over   US   policies   in   the   Middle   East.   President  Rouhani  has  advised  Khamenei  that  the  IRGC    management  of   the   war   in   Syria   through   its   influence   over   the   Hezbollah   and   the   use   of   Iraqi   air   corridors   for   Syrian   government   forces   arms   resupply   was   actually   strengthening   the   Syrian   opposition   elements   allied   with   al   Qaeda.  Rouhani  and  his  foreign  minister  believe  the  radical  militants  in   Syria   represent   a   major   threat   to   Iranian   influence   in   the   neighboring   Shi’ite   and   a   Geneva   negotiation     leading   to   a   peace   agreement   could   lead  to  the  regime  continuance  of  Bashar  Assad.         2