Institutional Investor All American Research Team | Page 16
I OPENING CAPITAL THE 2012 ALL-AMERICA RESEARCH TEAM INVESTING RESEARCH & RANKINGS
ECONOMICS & STRATEGY
TELECOM SERVICES
Philip Cusick
J.P. Morgan
The buy side says:
“Phil has good insights into
trends and how they are likely to
shape the telecom industry.”
I
t’s been a while, but Philip
Cusick is back on top, rising
one rung to make his first appearance in the winner’s circle since
2006; he’s also No. 3 in Cable
& Satellite. The J.P. organ anaM
lyst upgraded AT&T from neutral to overweight in April, at
$30.08, telling clients that consensus expectations were too low.
In July the Dallas- ased provider
b
reported that second- uarter
q
earnings per share had risen
10 percent, to $0.66, year-overyear; the Street had expected
EPS of $0.63. By the end of
August, AT&T’s stock had
climbed 21.8 percent, to $36.64,
and bested the sector by 5.2 percentage points. Cusick, 38,
upgraded Sprint Nextel Corp.
from neutral to overweight in
June, at $2.51, largely on the
Overland Park, Kansas–based
outfit’s improvements to its network. The stock price zipped to
$4.85 in late August — advancing a stunning 93.2 percent and
trumping the sector by 85.6 percentage points. “He is an excellent stock picker,” cheers one
investor. Looking ahead, “we
remain positive on the wireless
space given a combination of
continued slow subscriber
growth and revenue- er- ser
p u
growth owing to a shift to smartphones as well as price increases,”
Cusick says.
— P
.B.
ACCOUNTING & TAX POLICY
Christopher Senyek
Wolfe Trahan & Co.
individual rate, from 35 percent to 39.6 percent. “While
the outcome of the November
elections will likely influence
the path of tax policy, we don’t
believe either party in Congress
wants tax rates to increase in
such a way as to stifle economic growth in 2013,” Senyek
says. He predicts the lameduck congressional session will
come up with a compromise
that extends current rates for at
least a few months — and possibly for two years.
— P
.S.
improve in the fall, in lagged
response to both lower oil
prices and easing moves around
the world over the past year,”
he says. Experience makes
Hyman’s opinions invaluable,
money managers say. “He has
seen so much over the years
that he’s able to synthesize a
mountain of information and
relate it to historical parallels in
interesting ways,” observes one
buy-side upporter.
s
— P
.S.
The buy side says:
“Chris understands the issues
better than many analysts.”
A
lthough he moved from
ISI Group to Wolfe Trahan
& Co. in September 2011,
C
hristopher Senyek doesn’t
budge from the top spot, which
he holds for a fourth consecutive year.The 37-year-old produces “amazingly in-depth
reports on often- idden and
h
overlooked — but important —
rules,” says one supporter. U.S.
taxes are a top concern, Senyek
says. “We expect the expiration
of the Bush tax cuts and other
stimulus measures — the fiscal
cliff — to be foremost on investors’ minds,” he reports, noting
that the maximum dividend rate
is poised to jump from 15 percent to 39.6 percent; the highest
capital gains rate, from 15 percent to 20 percent; and the top
ADAM
HOLT “HAS
THE BEST
SENSE OF
WHERE
SENTIMENT IS
TILTING.”
I N S T I T U T I O N A L I N V E S T O R . C O M • O C T O B E R 2 012
EQUITY-LINKED STRATEGIES
ECONOMICS
Ed Hyman
ISI Group
Marko Kolanovic
& team
J.P. Morgan
The buy side says:
“He’s really passionate about
what he does.”
The buy side says:
“They provide concise, clear
ideas that we don’t see from
anyone else.”
E
J
d Hyman, a member of the
All- merica Research Team
A
Hall of Fame, captures a recordsmashing 33rd straight year at
No. 1. The ISI Group economist was one of the first to
warn clients that the U.S.
housing boom was about to go
bust — that was back in 2005,
long before the term “subprime mortgage” entered the
vernacular — and now he is
among the first to declare that
the bust is about to go boom.
“We think housing has turned
the corner and expect both
housing starts and house prices
to surprise on the upside, and
to keep the U.S. economy —
and the world economy —
from sliding into ecession,”
r
says Hyman, 67. He sees other
reasons for optimism as well.
“The U.S. economy is likely to
.P. Morgan’s 15-strong
squad captained by Marko
Kolanovic rises one rung to
finish on top for the first time.
Despite low market volatility of
late, the strategists believe that
next month’s U.S. presidential
election, further turmoil stemming from the European debt
crisis or some other factor “could
potentially trigger a sell-off in the
market,” Kolanovic says, and an
increase in the hicago Board
C
Options Exchange market volatility index. “We foresee slightly
more risk on the downside for
the market and hence upside for
volatility,” the team leader adds.
“We are advising clients to add
to their hedges, to be biased
long volatility.” olanovic, 37,
K
earned a Ph.D. in theoretical
high- nergy hysics at New
e
p
York University before joining