insideKENT Magazine Issue 64 - July 2017 | Seite 177

PROPERTY
ELECTION
CAUSING BUYERS
AND SELLERS TO
‘WAIT AND SEE’
IN THE
SOUTH EAST
ENQUIRIES FROM NEW
BUYERS, NEW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM
THOSE WANTING TO SELL,
AND AGREED SALES IN THE
SOUTH EAST’S HOUSING
MARKET HAVE ONCE MORE
DECLINED IN MAY,
ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RICS UK
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
SURVEY. IN ADDITION,
PRICE EXPECTATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO SLOW
DOWN OVER THE NEXT
THREE MONTHS.
Although a fall in property coming on to the
market is a recurring theme over the past two
years, anecdotal evidence from respondents
to the South East’s survey in May suggests this
month’s drop may have been exacerbated by
the General Election, as some adopt a wait
and see approach.
In May, 25% more respondents cited a decline
in fresh listings (compared to those reporting
a rise), producing the most negative reading,
in the region, since June 2016. Alongside this,
new buyer enquiries fell in the South East,
having remained subdued over much of the
past six months.
At the same time, agreed sales continued to
decline for the fourth month running as the
South East’s indicator saw 26% more
respondents noting a fall (compared to -16%
previously). Going forward, near term sales
expectations imply stagnant activity with the
second consecutive flat reading observed for
over the coming three months, but beyond
this, over the next twelve months, respondents
are optimistic with a net balance of 28%
anticipating an increase in activity.
The South East’s price growth indicator moved
from a net balance of +16% to +23% in May,
remaining stable. Looking ahead, near-term
price expectations are subdued, with 14% more
respondents expecting prices to fall (rather
than rise) over the next three months.
This trend is however not expected to continue
long term with the South East’s 12-month
expectations remaining solid, at +64%. Further
out, over the next five years, respondents
envisage house price inflation averaging 5%
per annum across the South East.
In the South East’s lettings market, tenant
demand dropped in May (on a non-seasonally
adjusted basis), while new landlord instructions
also declined, following an eight-month trend.
7% more respondents in the South East expect
rents to rise (rather than fall) over the coming
three months and in terms of 12-month
expectations, contributors are pencilling in
around 2% headline rental growth over the
year ahead.
Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist,
commented: “Although the latest survey
suggests that uncertainty related to the General
Election may have contributed to what appears
to have been a disappointing level of
transactions in the housing market over the
spring, perhaps the most ominous signal
emanating from the data released today is that
contributors still expect house prices to
increase at a faster pace than wages over the
medium term despite the difficulty many first
time buyers are clearly having in taking their
first steps onto the property ladder.
“The increasingly tight second hand market
remains a cause for concern with the RICS
series tracking new instructions to agents
recording its fifteenth successive negative
reading. It is hard to see this as anything other
a major obstacle to the efficient functioning
of the housing market.”
Christopher Sims FRICS, from Michael Rogers
LLP, Sevenoaks, added: “The General Election
and Brexit still appear to be causing
uncertainty.”
www.rics.org
177