PROPERTY
Westfield said in June that it was exiting San Francisco Centre , citing challenging operating conditions .
In Florida , growth was seen in secondary cities , such as Lakeland in Polk County , between Tampa and Orlando in the central peninsular area , and Cape Coral and Fort Myers in Lee County , home to large retiree populations .
In most instances , the urban cores themselves were not major beneficiaries and in some cases they suffered population declines .
Data from Esri , a geographic information system company that uses change-ofaddress applications filed with the US Post Office to identify population shifts , paints the same picture as the US Census Bureau : since the beginning of the pandemic , south Florida , secondary cities in Texas and Arizona , and the Carolinas have all benefited from changing migration patterns within the US . And as more people move to these locations , retail is following .
Will the major cities ever recover ? But what does this mean for retail in the major cities that lost so many people and suffered so many business closures during the pandemic and post-pandemic period ?
In these areas , the situation is much less certain , and often there ’ s an element of government mismanagement involved .
The vacant spaces in the major urban cores are grappling with a lack of foot traffic , crime and onerous city regulations that , when taken to the extreme in cities such as San Francisco , can result in things like a ban on chain stores , which tend to attract large volumes of business . Still , even in beleaguered San Francisco , there is hope .
Colliers ’ Natunewicz says foot traffic is still OK in certain pockets and retail spaces are being acquired at bargain prices . However , the explosion in construction costs and short supply of laborers could become a problem , since retailers and restaurateurs tend to require a hefty amount of renovating and refitting to make spaces suitable for their use .
Meanwhile , for remote workers , the heat is on . Companies sitting on vacant office space in pricy downtown districts in the big urban cores are now using sticks more than carrots as their people prove reluctant to return to the bad old days of commuting .
Hybrid arrangements with near total flexibility are becoming rarer , replaced by mandates to work three or four days in the office , with the option of working one or two days at home . Many employment contracts now stipulate that employees have to live within commuting distance .
But where office-dependent retail almost seemed like a thing of the past just a year ago , in some cities , a faint pulse of life can be detected again . Whether or not it will ever be the same as it was in 2019 is much less certain .
Michael Baker is a retail consultant and former head of research at the International Council of Shopping Centers .
September 2023 www . insideretail . us 47