Inside Golf, Australia. August 2014 | Page 20

PGA Championship Preview Logic says Rory or Martin, but … David Newbery [email protected] O FTENTIMES logic goes out the window when trying to pick a winner of the year’s final major – the US PGA Championship. Still, if you listen to logic then Germany’s Martin Kaymer and Northern Irishman Rory McIlroy are the players of choice. In June, Kaymer captured the US Open and a month earlier won the Players’ Championship. Rory, well, he’s a class act. This year he won the BMW PGA Championship as well as The Open Championship, missing just one cut in 21 starts on the US and European tours. More importantly, both players are former world number ones and have already lifted the Wanamaker Trophy – Kaymer in 2010 and McIlroy in 2012. Kaymer this year has missed just three cuts playing in the US and Europe and, at the time of writing, was fourth on the US PGA Tour money list with more than $4m and €1.6 on the European Tour. So, logic points to Kaymer or McIlroy winning the 98-year-old US PGA Championship at Valhalla GC, Louisville from August 7-10. If Kaymer does win, he’ll become only the fifth player to win the US Open and the PGA in the same year joining Gene Sarazen (1922), Ben Hogan (1948), Jack Nicklaus (1980) and Tiger Woods (2000). Will it happen? Probably not. The US PGA Championship has developed a trend of producing first-time winners and many one-only major winners. Shaun Micheel, Rich Beem, David Toms, Davis Love III, Mark Brooks, Steve Elkington, Wayne Grady, Paul Azinger, Jeff Sluman and Bob Tway all broke the major barrier by winning the US PGA Championship and no other major. Look for it to happen again at Valhalla, site of Tiger’s second PGA title (2000) and Mark Brooks’ one and only major (1996). Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer have both lifted the Wanamaker Trophy in the past... can they do it again at Valhalla? (Photos: Montana Pritchard) Will the Jack Nicklaus-designed Valhalla layout favour some players and not others? The golf course is long (7458 yards or 6820 metres) and suits right-handed players who play a high fade. So forget lefties Phil and Bubba. They say if you are good enough, you’re old enough so perhaps the talented Jordan Spieth, at 21, could triumph. He has the talent and all the attributes to conquer Valhalla, but look for an established player who has been around the traps. Sergio Garcia, still trying to shed the “best player not to have won a major”, comes to mind, but despite a solid finish at The Open Championship, he’s still not as logical as Kaymer or Rory or Adam Scott or Justin Rose or even Tiger. If not Sergio, perhaps 35-year-old American Jimmy Walker, who has won three times this season and is atop the Fed-Ex standings and US PGA money list. He’s had eight top-10s in 21 starts and has banked more than $5m. Perhaps more logical than the Spaniard. Matt Kuchar (Inside Golf editor Richard Fellner’s perennial favourite) must come into calculation. He has had top-10s in all the majors in recent times (barring The Open) and has won 11 times on tour banking more than $30m. The man’s a walking ATM. He’s had nine top-10s this year including a win at the RBC Heritage, but he’s ranked 147th in driving distance so draw a line through his name (sorry Richard). Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson are much more logical choices. Johnson has played in five US PGAs with three top-10s and Stenson, third last year, has three top-5s in nine appearances. But consider Garcia’s record compared to others seeking their first major. Sergio is long enough off the tee, is sixth on tour in greens hit in regulation and first in scoring averages. In 11 events on tour this year, he has had seven top-10s including two seconds and two third place finishes. And he’s in fine form after the Open Championship, where he gave Rory a run for his money. So if you go with the logic, it’ll be Spain’s Sergio García Fernández who lifts the Wanamaker Trophy, but not before he beats Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson in the playoff.