Ingenieur Vol. 75 ingenieur July 2018-FA | Page 48

INGENIEUR
Figure 3: Past Trends and Forecasted Average Electricity Tariff vs Solar PV Electricity Generation Cost
Source: MPIA Proposal for Net Energy Metering Program 2016-2030, [Ref.4]
60% of the capital costs in these technologies,
but they could follow a ‘semiconductor-like’
improvement in price performance. In addition,
panel installation, usually a fifth of the cost, can
be made quicker and cheaper through GPS-
guided power tools and robots. Overall, it is
estimated that technology improvements could
reduce Large-Scale Solar PV power plant cost to
65% of its capital expenditure of what it is now by
2025 as shown in Figure 2.
According to Malaysian Photovoltaic Industry
Association (MPIA) forecast report, [Ref 4], year
2020 LCOE for utility-scale solar photovoltaic
generation (10 MWp to 50 MWp range) plus
transmission & distribution grid asset utilisation
costs would be about 39 sen/kWh, which is lower
than the forecast average electricity tariff of about
45 sen/kWh, as shown in Figure 3.
Grid-connected distributed solar photovoltaic
generation, principally solar panels used to power
individual households or supply part of a building’s
energy requirements, enjoys a large share of
overall solar power production in some countries,
such as the UK, the Netherlands and Singapore,
where more than half of renewable generation
is residential (mostly rooftop solar). Distributed
generation could also provide other benefits,
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such as lower line losses due to shorter distances
transmitted, productive use of unutilised rooftops,
and environmental benefits. It could be particularly
relevant for heavily-congested areas where adding
new infrastructure is impractical.
If renewable solar PV generation costs
continue to fall and energy storage capabilities/
efficiencies grow rapidly, it can be envisioned that
entire neighbourhoods or factory complexes may
be served using distributed solar photovoltaic
power generation and localised distribution
smart grid infrastructure. This could make remote
housing and manufacturing plants more viable
by reducing the transmission capacity required
from the central transmission grid or even
eliminating the need to access the transmission
grid altogether.
Future Power System: High Flexibility
Requirement
The flexibility of the system represents its ability
to accommodate the variability and uncertainty in
the demand-generation balance while maintaining
satisfactory levels of performance over a given
timescale.