INGENIEUR
INGENIEUR
Aircraft Demand
During the Le Bourget air show in Paris, in June 2017, both Airbus and Boeing released their market forecasts for the following 20 years( 2017-2036), Airbus’ s Global Market Forecast and Boeing’ s Current Market Outlook, taking into account traffic forecasts. Table 1 is a comparison of the two forecasts with respect to number of passenger aircraft and value of commercial aircraft respectively.
Although the comparison provides an overview of the passenger aircraft market, it hides some of the developing trends for the demand of various aircraft categories. Airbus recognises that there is an overlap between the operations of twin-aisle and single-aisle aircraft types. For example twinaisle aircraft are used more often on routes longer than 2,000nm than single-aisle types which are used on routes shorter than 2,000nm. Clearly capacity needs on shorter sectors is one of the key drivers for the use of twin – aisle types, but there is also evidence that congestion, particularly in Asia is another factor, with many airports in the region operationally constrained.
According to the International Civil Aviation Organisation( ICAO), 142 countries added 5 % or more capacity in 2016 than in 2015. Of these, nearly 80 countries added more than 10 % as shown in Figure 4. This, combined with traffic
Number of Countries
Figure 4: 2016 Added Capacity( Source: Airbus, 2017)
growth above the long term trend, is driving demand for new aircraft today and into the future. More than simply adding capacity, the world’ s airlines are also increasingly more efficient in the way that they are using aircraft. Average load factor, that is, the proportion of the seats filled in the aircraft, are at an all-time high at around 80 %. Taking into account growth in average aircraft size, increased average utilization levels as well as higher average load factor, aircraft are an impressive 50 % more productive in terms of traffic today than 20 years ago. A significant improvement has been witnessed from both the airlines’ operational efficiency and the state of the art aircraft being delivered today.
Table 1: Comparison in passenger aircraft manufactured by Airbus and Boeing
Types of Aircraft Number of passenger aircraft Value of commercial aircraft Airbus Boeing Airbus Boeing Units % Units % Billion US $ %
Regional Jets 0 0 2370 6 0 0 110 2 Single Aisle 24807 71 29530 74 2439 47 3180 55 Twin Aisle 1 8175 25 8120 20 2243 43 2500 43 Very Large 1184 4 * * 545 10 * *
34166 100 37740 100 5227 100 5970 100
1
: Twin aisle aircraft comprises small twin aisle and intermediate twin aisle aircraft *: Boeing has merged very large aircraft with intermediate twin aisle aircraft into a medium / wide category in the CMO 2017. Hence very large aircraft has been accounted into twin aisle in the above comparison work.
12 VOL 74 APRIL-JUNE 2018