Ingenieur July-Sept 2016 Ingenieur July-Sept 2016 | Page 45

The power generation sector continues to evolve, with increasing support policies propelling increased renewable energy deployment, which in turn leads to technological improvements as well as continual cost reductions. Despite this virtuous cycle, renewable energy deployment and integration is not increasing rapidly enough to meet the world’s ambitious goals for a truly sustainable power system (IRENA, 2015). As of 2012, renewable energy accounted for approximately 17% of electricity production in the Asia-Pacific region, down slightly from 18% in 1990. In absolute terms, renewable energy production increased from 666 TWh in 1990 to 1,869 TWh in 2012. Over this period, however, generation from VRE sources increased from 38 GWh of electricity production in 1990 to nearly 164,000 GWh (164 TWh) in 2012, accounting for 1.5% of total electricity production within the region as of 2012. Total electricity production nearly tripled from 3,743 TWh in 1990 to 10,739 TWh in 2012 (ESCAP, 2015). Variable Renewable Energy VRE sources include wind, solar PV and concentrated solar power (CSP), wave and tidal energies. Globally, shares of VRE sources within the electricity mix have risen from 0.04% of electricity production in 1990 to 2.8% in 2012, significantly higher than the 1.5% share that VRE accounts for in the Asia-Pacific region. The emergence of VRE is due in part to the fact that the cost-competitiveness of these technologies has reached historic levels. Three factors make VRE a critical theme requiring in-depth examination within the context of energy development in the Asia-Pacific region. Firstly, the barriers to capturing VRE resources are getting lower. Technology for capturing and storing energy, stability of distribution systems, capital costs and even physical space continues to advance at unprecedented speeds, while costs - particularly for solar PV - continue to fall more rapidly than predicted just a few years ago. Secondly, Governments, the private sector and the general public are increasingly turning towards VRE for power production. The Asia-Pacific region has emerged in the past few years as a leader in the production and adoption of VRE technologies. Led largely by China, the region is driving the global trend in production of solar and wind power and shaping the global markets for these technologies. Increasingly, the benefits of generating electricity from VRE rather than fossil fuels are recognised. Recent developments in policy, investment, generation and capacity additions point strongly in the direction of a significant increase in future VRE integration within the region’s power systems. Thirdly, the Asia-Pacific region has the opportunity to transition to more flexible, stable, cleaner and cost-effective future energy systems that can better integrate the power resources of both today and tomorrow. The region’s dynamic power systems are leading the increase in global electricity demand, yet many countries struggle to generate base levels of electricity. Tremendous investment is needed to expand and refurbish the region’s electricity systems, and incentives exist to turn to the cheapest and easiest fuel and technology solutions to meet this need. However, not planning for long-term economic, social and environmental costs, or not developing energy systems that can better integrate shifting resources and emerging technologies, may result in the inability to meet future demand in an economically cost-effective manner. Renewable Energy Outlook According to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2014, cumulative power plant capacity additions between 2014 and 2025 will be dominated by renewables within the Asia-Pacific region with 777 GW of added capacity, followed by coal (506 GW), gas (303 GW), nuclear (125 GW) and oil (4 GW). In terms of generation shares within the electricity mix, renewable energy within the AsiaPacific region will increase from 17.4% in 2012 to 28% in 2040 according to the IEA New Policies Scenario (NPS). VRE will jump from 1.5 to 10% over this same period, within the region. In order for renewable energy supply to reach these NPS targets by 2040, a cumulative investment of US$7.8 trillion is needed, with approximately 95% to be spent on power 43