INGENIEUR
in terms of coal reserves as Saudi Arabia with respect to oil reserves .
Volatile , unsettled coal prices pose a big risk to Malaysian electricity power producers due to the risk of no automatic fuel-cost pass through mechanism . Automatic fuel-cost pass through mechanism is vital to sustain the viability of a power utility company .
Levelised cost of electricity ( LCOE ) is an internationally accepted economic / financial criterion for comparing cost of electricity for different fuel technology plant types , such as coal , gas and nuclear .
Figure12 shows the LCOE for gas and coal when fuel price for each fuel type is increased as indicated . When the price of indigenous Petronas gas ( RMP ) is increased by more than double ( from RM15 per mmBTU to RM35 per mmBTU ), the LCOE also increased by more than double i . e ., from 13 sen / kWh to 28.5 sen / kWh . Similarly for coal , from 11.1 sen / kWh to 15.3 sen / kWh ( when the international coal price ( ACP ) increases from USD48 per metric tonne to USD68 per metric tonne ). As evidenced from this , one can appreciate the fact that the primary fossil fuels price volatility risk of coal and gas has a very significant impact on cost of electricity for Malaysia .
In this context of fossil-fuel security , namely , resource accessibility and fuel price risk , the Nuclear Power Plant Option would be worthwhile for the Government to seriously reconsider in the long-term , say from 2035 onwards . This Option was temporarily shelved in 2018 following the completion in 2016 of the three-year Feasibility Study of Malaysia ’ s Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development Plan , which was undertaken by the Malaysian Nuclear Power Corporation .
Figure 13 [ Ref . 5 ] shows the impact of doubling resource prices on LCOE of fuel technology plant type . The LCOE for Nuclear is at USD 5 cents / kWh , Coal at USD 4.7 cents / kWh and Gas at USD 4.4 cents / kWh . The same figure shows the impact of doubling the resource prices of uranium , coal and gas on the respective LCOE of each fuel technology plant type . The LCOE of nuclear plant only increases by about + 4 %, whereas that for coal-fired power plant increased by + 40 % and gas-fired combine cycle plant by + 70 %. This is because uranium fuel has no alternative use , and with abundant resources from many regions and a competitive fuel market , prices are low ( much less than USD130 per kg ) and likely to remain so in the long term . The nuclear option provides the necessary buffer against fuel price volatility risk impact as the fuel cost component of nuclear generated electricity is a very small share of electricity price , as shown in Figure 13 . Also , nuclear power has very low lifetime greenhouse emissions and hence a potent climate change mitigation option for electricity generation .
On a comparative basis , based on the capital cost for building a new 1,000MW coal-fired supercritical boiler power plant in Malaysia , the capital expenditure ( Capex ) per installed MW is about RM5 million . A new nuclear power plant of about the same size costs approximately four times that of a coal plant , at about RM20 million per MW installed . The LCOE for the three different fuel technology plant types includes both the capex and the operating expenditure ( Opex ) which principally comprises the primary fossil-fuel energy price for coal , gas and uranium respectively .
Carbon Emission Climate Change / Environmental Sustainability
As shown in Figure 3 , coal contributes about 53 % of Malaysia ’ s electricity generation , followed by gas at about 30 %.
In our most recent WASP generation expansion planning simulation study for post-2020 electricity supply requirement , with the scenario of unconstrained coal planting-up ( Scenario 1 ), the coal share in the fuel mix is up to about 80 %, with about 10 % from natural gas .
Coal produces more than twice as much carbon dioxide per unit ( kWh ) of electricity than natural gas . Malaysia has made a commitment at the Copenhagen Summit on Climate Change for carbon emission intensity reduction of 40 % by 2025 - 2030 .
Traditionally , energy issues have revolved around questions about price , accessibility , security and pollution . But now energy policies of all kinds are being shaped by the issue of climate change and global warming . There is now a very strong case for international regulation on carbon emission in the future . Development of new power plants will be subjected to stringent environmental codes and regulations . Future generation options
60 VOL 86 APRIL-JUNE 2021