INGENIEUR
Figure 9 ( c ): Scenario 2 Generation Expansion Development Plan
reliability and reserve margin which are useful in analysing issues relevant to decision-making . Based on reliability criterion of Loss of Load Probability ( LOLP ) not exceeding 1 day per year for the Peninsular Malaysia power system , the generating reserve margin will be around 15 % to 25 % of the peak power demand ( MW ).
Due to future uncertainties , such as electricity demand growth , fuel choice / fuel mix , and fuel price volatility especially gas and coal , carbon and climate change , various scenario studies are required for the WASP generation expansion planning simulation to analyse issues relevant to decision-making . In this report [ Ref . 5 ], we have chosen two pertinent scenarios of generation plant-up with respect to fuel choice / fuel mix to adequately meet the projected demand with the necessary reserve margin , namely :
● Unconstrained coal and gas planting-up ( Scenario 1 , see Figure 9a ), and
● Constrained coal and unconstrained gas planting-up ( Scenario 2 , see Figure 9b and Figure 9c ).
Fuel Security / Electricity Pricing ( Affordability )
Presently , Malaysia ’ s electricity generation supply planning policy specifies fossil-fuel Gas , Coal and
Renewable Energy / Energy Efficiency as primary energy inputs for electricity generation , besides exploiting whatever remaining large hydroelectric power resources in Peninsular Malaysia . However , this policy does not address the issue of fossil-fuel security from the aspect of :
● Resource accessibility
● Degree of acceptance of price risk
( a ) Resource Accessibility of Indigenous Gas Supply Figure 10 shows the evolution of generation mix by fuel type . Following the worldwide oil crisis in 1979 and the 1982 discovery of off-shore indigenous gas in Terengganu , Petronas-supplied / subsidised natural gas became the main fuel , reaching about 80 % share by year 2000 . However , from about 2002 , Petronas imposed curtailment on gas supply for power generation and by 2011 , there was a severe shortage of piped natural gas from Petronas . Currently , Malaysia does not have : 1 . A clear policy on indigenous gas utilisation for the power sector in terms of fuel generation mix for the medium to long term which is to facilitate infrastructure development requirements for upstream player ( PETRONAS ) and downstream
56 VOL 86 APRIL-JUNE 2021