INGENIEUR
Figure 8 : Peninsular Malaysia Electricity Consumption , Energy Generation and Peak Demand Forecast
Growing Electricity Demand-Generation Supply Requirement
Based on the key historical economic and energy data as given in the National Energy Balance Report 2018 ( as highlighted in the preceding section ), and utilising the econometric modelling of electricity consumption , the long-term integrated load demand forecast for Peninsular Malaysia was formulated until year 2050 . The consumption growth is about two percent over this period as shown in Figure 8 .
From this integrated electricity ( energy ) consumption forecast , the energy generation ( GWh ) required to supply this consumption growth was computed taking into account the Peninsular Malaysia transmission-distribution grid loss factor of about nine percent . The associated integrated peak power demand ( MW ) was also derived using grid annual load factor of about 78 %.
Generation expansion planning simulation is then required to identify the size , technology , fuel and timing for new generating units post-2020 to meet the integrated load demand forecast over the same period ( 2015-2050 ), taking cognisance that all those new generating plants that have already been identified for implementation / operation before year 2020 are already in various stages of construction .
The generation expansion plan necessitates production simulation of the operation of generating units and calculation of the expected amount of energy generated by each unit to meet future projected loads over the planning horizon , that is , until 2040 . The simulation programme ( WASP-IV of IAEA ) uses a load duration curve simulation method to dispatch generation resources to meet the demand for electricity described by the input peak power ( MW ) and energy demand ( MWh ) for each time period . The model takes into account both planned resource variations ( periods of scheduled planned outages ) and unplanned resource variations ( such as the effect of plant forced outages ). The overall objective of generation expansion plan is to develop a least-cost generation expansion programme to adequately meet the demand for electricity at minimum cost , with the development of large data sets tabulating the costs , fuel use ,
54 VOL 86 APRIL-JUNE 2021