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ABRE publishes macroeconomic study on packaging in Brazil in 2021
Numbers pointed to growth in gross value , but fall in physical production
The gross value of packaging production in 2021 in Brazil was R $ 111 billion , an increase of 31 % over the previous year , according to data released by ABRE ( Brazilian Packaging Association ), in a macroeconomic study prepared by FGV – IBRE .
“ It was a growth that occurred largely due to prices pressured by the increase in the costs of inputs , a factor that was more marked in the first half , improving little by little until the end of the year ”, said Aloisio Campelo , from FGV-IBRE .
Physical packaging production dropped 3 % in 2021 , the first time after years of growth , and also after 3 years in which it grew well above the industrial sector . The growth of the manufacturing industry in 2021 was 4.3 %.
“ Even in 2020 when the pandemic started , the manufacturing industry had a 4.6 % drop in production , but the packaging segment managed to grow . There was an increase in the use of packaging linked to the trend of the home office and consumption at home , which somewhat contained the deterioration of the sector ' s performance , but in 2021 the situation worsened ”, said Campelo .
Among the reasons given by the economist is the sharp slowdown in the consumption of goods and a gradual return to face-to-face activities that benefited the service sector . There was a shift from consumption of goods to consumption of services .
What caused the detachment between the packaging industry and the manufacturing industry ? According to Campelo , there was a composition of factors . “ There was a reversal of a large part of online sales , with a rise in
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consumption in restaurants , in addition to the depletion of household debt capacity and food inflation , leading to a drop in demand in this sector , which is very important for the packaging industry . ”.
The estimate for GDP in 2022 is for growth of 0.6 %, and that for the packaging sector is for a fall of 0.5 %, but above the manufacturing industry , with a forecast of a reduction of 3.2 % over 2021 . The positive GDP should have the contribution of the agriculture and services sectors , and also of the consumption of the families that should grow more than the GDP , with 0.8 %, similar to the growth expectation for this year of the increase in the expanded salary mass . , which includes government transfers , Auxílio Brasil , FGTS , etc .
The scenario is back to normality in relation to the pandemic , based on the analysis of people ' s mobility . Online retail sales are returning to pre-pandemic levels , but with growth slightly above . The pressure of input costs had been slowing at the beginning of this year , with some sectors still on the rise , such as pulp and cardboard , however , with the war in Ukraine , uncertainty returns .
The costs of the petrochemical chain were also decelerating . The price of oil , which had risen a lot in the first pre-war period , returned to previous levels , with the moves made by the United States and Europe to maintain supply levels .
“ 2022 should be a difficult year from a cost point of view , with the pandemic still getting in the way , the problem of ports , and the scarcity of raw materials continuing as a limiting factor for business expansion in the manufacturing industry ”, believes Aloisio Campos .
177 - Inforflexo · Mar / Abr de 2022 115