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Design of the future : how can design contribute to scenario planning ?
By José Carlos Carreira
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Prof . Dr . José Carlos Carreira – Doctor in Communication Sciences , Master in Communication with the Market , he is also trained in Integrated Coaching , by the Integrated Coaching Institute . He works with marketing , communication , design and semiotics in building brand identity . He has more than 15 years of professional experience in the marketing management of large multinationals . In the academic area , he is a professor in the areas of marketing , branding , semiotics and business design , working at Instituto Mauá de Tecnologia and Instituto Europeo di Design , where he also works as innovation director .
The construction of future scenarios is one of the most important planning activities of a company , and in recent times it has become a great challenge . The volatility and complexity of market environments and planning assumptions make strategic management very difficult for managers and entrepreneurs .
Extrapolating past conditions , seeking to predict the future , is a path that would only make sense if the global market had a constant pattern of evolution , a fact that has not been observed for a long time . However , some companies still strive for planning that only considers the experiences of the paths already taken , added to algorithmic projections to understand future scenarios . To paraphrase Samuel Taylor Coleridge : “ The light that experience gives us is from a lantern at the stern , which only illuminates the waves we leave behind .”
In a globalized world , full of uncertainties and oscillations , scenario planning must , yes , consider past experiences , but it cannot stop there . It is also important to start in the opposite direction to what is normally practiced : instead of building scenarios that start from the present and project futures , one should imagine a possible and desirable scenario in the future and return to its implementation in the present . That is , to add to the logic of forecasting that of backcasting , in which we start from a future scenario and return to the present , verifying its applicability and economic and technical feasibility .
A good example of this was the speech by the President of the United States in 1962 , John Kennedy , who gave Americans a future vision that it would be possible and desirable to go to the moon . Based on this vision , of imagining oneself on the Moon , a whole plan was drawn up to return to the present and overcome obstacles .
That ' s where design comes in .
Design is the project , it is to develop a range of ways of thinking about problems and methodologies to solve them . When scenario planning is in question , design applies its methodological arsenal to project possible and desirable scenarios . This specific application of design is called design of futures .
Many other denominations have already been worked on by several future thinking scholars , such as : critical design , speculative design and discursive design , among others . But , focusing on the place where the future is projected , the best denomination seems to be design of futures .
The design of futures is a way of imagining and manifesting possibilities , with the aim of preparing for great challenges and contributing to a more desirable and responsible path for the future . They are processes to inspire and create ideas of how things can come to be , imagining and representing possible futures .
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Mar / Abr de 2022 · Inforflexo - 177