Indian Politics & Policy Volume 3, Number 1, Spring 2020 | Page 62

Indian Politics & Policy
The survey differentiated the
electorate into six age groups (up to 22
or first-time eligible to vote, 23–25, 26–
35, 36–45, 46–55, 56 and above). Overall,
we get the highest pro-BJP preference
in the two youngest cohorts (41
percent) and the least in the oldest cohort
(35 percent), but the broad national
pattern is visible across age groups
without any category going against it.
Breaking down classes into age
groups, we get the following picture.
There are remarkably similar voting
patterns across age groups within classes.
The notable standouts are that there
are higher BJP preferences across age
groups among the Rich, particularly in
the two youngest cohorts: 50 percent of
the youngest and 53 percent of second
youngest are pro-BJP.
Summing up the overall patterns
of pro-BJP and pro-Congress preference
by class, one observes that the
degree of class polarization in party
preference seems muted. The pro-BJP
swing—and the static vote of Congress,
nationally—seems to be reflected
across classes regardless of age groups,
location, or caste/community composition
except for a marked higher Upper
Caste preference across classes for
the BJP, a marked pro-Congress preference
among Muslims, and a marked
pro-BJP preference among the Rich
across age groups. These might be expected
from patterns in past surveys,
particularly 2014. What is remarkable,
however, is that the pro-BJP swing is
reflected among the Lower and Poor
classes across locations (except cities),
age groups, and castes/communities
(except Muslims), with a 10 percent increase
in pro-BJP vote among SCs and a
12 percent swing among the Poor from
2014 (although the Poor were differently
defined then and amounted to only
20 percent).
Economic Questions and
Voting Patterns by Class
This raises the question as to how
important economic questions
were for voting patterns in 2019.
On this issue, there is rich data in the
survey. The findings are as follows (I
sum up the findings of the tables in the
text from this point onwards, as there
are too many tables to fit in the space
constraints).
All economic issues taken together
seem to have been the most
important for only 43 percent of the
respondents, with 57 percent indicating
either Other issues were the most
important (39 percent) or giving no
response (18 percent). Only 11 percent
mentioned unemployment, 4 percent
inflation, and 3 percent corruption;
and economic issues were each under
3 percent. However, 17 percent mentioned
growth or development and 26
percent were fully satisfied and 39 percent
were somewhat satisfied with the
performance of the BJP-led NDA government
at the Centre, making 65 percent
at least somewhat satisfied, with
only 18 percent fully dissatisfied. These
responses were remarkably similar
across the four classes. These responses
perhaps indicate why economic issues
were the most important for only 43
percent and the “negative” economic
issues (unemployment, inflation, cor-
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