Indian Politics & Policy Volume 3, Number 1, Spring 2020 | Page 58

Indian Politics & Policy
Table 4: Economic Class * Party Voted for Lok Sabha 2019 (Figures in %)
Economic
Class
Congress
Congress
Allies
Party Voted for Lok Sabha 2019
BJP
BJP
Allies
BSP+ Left Others
Poor 17 6 36 7 7 2 26
Lower 21 8 36 7 7 2 21
Middle 21 8 38 8 6 3 17
Rich 20 7 44 7 4 2 16
Total 20 7 37 7 6 2 21
Source: NES 2019
Differentiating the vote for the
BJP and Congress by caste/community,
there is a much higher spread in
caste/community voting patterns than
in class voting patterns, even if we omit
Muslims (Table 5).
While overall, 52 percent of Upper
Castes voted for BJP and 12 percent
for Congress, only 8 percent of Muslims
voted for BJP, while 33 percent voted
for Congress. The other three major
castes/communities—the Other Backward
Classes (defined by caste) (OBCs),
Scheduled Castes (SCs), and Scheduled
Tribes (STs)—voted as follows: 44 percent
of OBCs voted for BJP and 15 percent
for Congress; 34 percent of SCs
voted for BJP and 20 percent for Congress;
and 44 percent of STs voted for
BJP and 31 percent for Congress. Overall,
Hindu-Muslim polarization (sharp
differences in preferences) is observed
when it comes to BJP versus Congress.
There is also a kind of Hindu consolidation,
if one wants to call it that, with
Upper Castes, OBCs, SCs, and STs very
broadly following the national voteshare
pattern with the Upper Castes in
particular voting highly pro-BJP, but
even the SCs are broadly in line with
the national pattern. However, the
spread in BJP preference between Upper
Castes and SCs is 18 percent. Notably,
the SC vote for the BJP has gone up
from 24 percent in 2014 to 34 percent
in 2019, a significant jump.
Breaking down class voting by
caste/community, the Poor (who are
probably highly correlated with the
lower castes) voted 36 percent BJP and
17 percent Congress, in line with the
national pattern. What emerges is that
there is a much higher spread in caste/
community voting patterns than in
class voting patterns, even if we leave
out the Muslims. The Upper Caste
Poor voted 49 percent BJP and 9 percent
Congress, in line with overall Upper
Caste patterns, as did Poor OBCs
and Poor STs; even Poor SCs voted 34
percent BJP and 14 percent Congress.
Poor Muslims voted 8 percent BJP and
30 percent Congress. The same caste/
community pattern of voting, broadly in
line with the national pattern, is roughly
observable for the Lower, Middle, and
Rich classes, with a more pro-BJP pattern
among the Upper Castes, pro-Con-
54