Indian Politics & Policy Volume 3, Number 1, Spring 2020 | Page 55

Understanding Voting Patterns by Class in the 2019 Indian Election
调研数据 , 本文试图理解并诠释 2019 年印度大选中各阶层的投票模式。聚焦于对印度人民党 (BJP) 和印度国民大会党
(INC) 这两大党派的投票偏好模式。分析重点试图解释为何 Lokniti 调研数据组中划分的四个阶层的选民偏好几乎没有差异。本文按以下方式进行。在简要描述 Lokniti 调研对社会阶层的分类及其与 2014 年进行比较后 , 本文描述了各社会阶层的投票率和党派偏好 , 并进一步通过种姓 / 社群、年龄群体、农村 — 城市地点进行划分。本文随后质疑 , 涵盖诸多政府福利计划的经济疑问是否影响了各阶层的选民偏好。结论则是 , 选民和政府计划所感受到的经济情况并未在选民对党派的偏好一事上引起重大的阶层差异 , 那么疑问则是 , 什么能解释各阶层出现相当统一的党派偏好。本文随后研究了更广泛的疑问 , 即有关对领导力、民族主义、少数群体的态度的疑问 , 这些态度可能以制造相对较小差异的方式影响投票模式。最后 , 通过引入文献得出的研究发现 , 本文在一定程度上推测地解释了上述数据集得出的结果。
关键词 : 阶层 , 种姓制度 , 社群 , 投票率 , 领导力 , 民族主义 , 少数群体 , 福利计划
Introduction
This paper attempts to understand
and explain patterns of voting
by class in the 2019 Indian election
based on the Centre for Study of
Developing Societies (CSDS)/Lokniti
post-election survey data. The focus is
on patterns of voting preference for the
two major parties, the Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) and the Indian National
Congress (Congress). The thrust of the
analysis is to try to explain why there
is so little difference in voter preference
across the four-class division in the
Lokniti survey dataset. Unlike in 2014,
where the higher turnout of upper and
middle classes and their strong pro-BJP
preference, particularly in the younger
age groups and in metropolitan and
urban areas, influenced the magnitude
of the 12 percent pro-BJP swing compared
to 2009, this time, the further 6
percent pro-BJP swing seems to have
been fairly uniform across the classes
and within classes by age group, rural-urban
location, and caste/community
disaggregation.
The paper proceeds as follows.
Following a brief description of the
Lokniti survey’s classification of social
classes and its comparison with 2014,
the paper describes turnout and party
preference across social classes, further
disaggregated by breakdown by caste/
community, age group, and rural-urban
location. It next asks whether economic
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