Indian Politics & Policy Volume 3, Number 1, Spring 2020 | Page 28

Indian Politics & Policy
is negatively correlated with the likelihood
of a vote for the incumbent. The
magnitude of the effects of positive and
negative evaluations is also different—
that is, voters react more to a negative
evaluation relative to a positive one.
I also find that while the effects of a
positive evaluation have not changed
in magnitude over time, that of a negative
effect almost doubled from 2014
to 2019. What explains this doubling?
One possible reason is that the sudden
drop in liquidity and consumption (and
other sorts of economic dislocation)
following demonetization in 2016 produces
a stronger effect of negative economic
evaluations. A point worth noting
is that while UPA was accused by
opposition parties for widespread corruption
and inefficiency in governance,
there were no sudden disruptive shocks
to the economy and livelihoods. Finally,
I find that attachment to an incumbent
party or coalition has a consistently
strong positive effect on the incumbent
(and the BJP) vote. Party attachment is
the strongest predictor of vote choice
in all models. While economic evaluations
are significant, the substantive
effect of partisanship dwarfs that of all
other variables. Finally, the winning
caste-community coalition assembled
by the BJP in 2019, noted by earlier
studies, is also clearly evident. The effects
of other economic and demographic
variables, such as rural location
of a voter, economic class, and gender,
are smaller or nonexistent.
The results suggest that voters
pay attention to their household economic
conditions in addition to being
influenced by party attachments while
making vote choices. While partisanship
exerts a strong hold on how voters
perceive government policy and performance,
can a widespread perception of
a decline in household economic conditions
(say, due to a sustained decline
in “real” economic output) outweigh
its effects? Rahul Verma suggests that
the BJP’s loss in Jharkhand in 2019 is
a “clear signal to the BJP that it needs
to address economic concerns, which
are now hurting average voters. The
BJP may very well push its ideological
projects (such as removal of Article
370, the construction of Ram temple in
Ayodhya, the National Register for Citizens,
and the Citizenship Amendment
Act) but it won’t help them electorally
beyond a point, until the government
does something urgently to fix the stagnating
economy.” 28 If anti-incumbent
sentiments driven by perceptions of
economic non-performance and declining
standards of living can shunt
the BJP out of power in a state, there
is no reason to think that the BJP will
not suffer a similar fate nationally come
2024, Modi’s magic notwithstanding.
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