Indian Politics & Policy Volume 3, Number 1, Spring 2020 | Page 18

Indian Politics & Policy
venson note that “the systematic empirical
work on economic voting ... reveals
not a universal law of economic voting
but, rather, a conditional one. Economic
voting is very likely widespread and
often important; but, its magnitude and
nature across elections is almost certainly
variable.” 10 Similarly, Lewis-Beck,
Nadeau, and Elias observe that while
“these investigations do not agree on
everything they do generally agree on
one thing: the economy is a significant
determinant of vote choice.” 11
While much of the evidence relating
to economic voting comes primarily
from analyzing election outcomes,
aggregate economic conditions,
and survey-based voter evaluations
during elections in the US and European
democracies, Suri finds evidence for
egotropic voting in India. That is, positive
retrospective evaluations of household
economic conditions did have a
significant influence on votes for the incumbent
alliance in the election to the
Lok Sabha in 2009. 12 He suggests that
since the Indian state is an important
provider of economic goods and opportunities,
voters can therefore be expected
to reward or punish incumbents
based on their economic performance.
Specifically, “in India’s prevailing situation
of scarcity and deprivation of material
goods, where voter’s dependency
on the government for providing basic
amenities and attending to personal
economic grievances is high… It is also
possible that Indian voters, despite postulates
about their collectivist attitude,
are driven by evaluations of their personal
economic condition.” 13 It is likely
that the economy might matter more to
individuals who live in relatively poor
societies precisely because of the extensive
role a government assumes in such
societies.
The NES 2019 asks an open-ended
question, “What was the most important
issue for you while voting in
this election?” Tellingly, approximately
36 percent identify an economic
or related developmental issue as the
most important. Responses include
unemployment, price rise, wages, poverty,
food, rural debt, agrarian crises,
economic growth, and development,
among others. About 9 percent indicate
governance, government performance
in infrastructure and service delivery,
and state corruption as the most important
issues. Identity-related issues
(including religion, caste, and policy related
to identities) account for a meager
2 percent. Similarly, 2 percent identify
national security, domestic terrorism,
and foreign policy issues; party, leadership,
and candidates matter to about
7 percent. Even among BJP partisans,
about 30 percent point to economic
issues as the most important issues. It
is clear that voters attribute significant,
if not all, weight to economic and livelihood
concerns while making vote
choices.
Political scientists also claim that
the economy is a valence issue, i.e., an
issue that generates broad agreement
among voters. 14 All voters prefer economic
prosperity to poverty, expanding
economic opportunities over economic
stagnation, and improved standards of
living over unemployment. It is therefore
reasonable to expect Indian voters
to punish poor economic performance
14