Indian Politics & Policy Volume 3, Number 1, Spring 2020 | Page 100

Indian Politics & Policy
Two of out five first-time voters voted
for the BJP. The party also saw a rise
of 4 percentage points in its vote share
among first-time voters (Table 4). What
is interesting is that both the parties saw
an increase in its vote share among the
first-time voters, but Congress was unable
to garner votes from second time
voters who are in the age group of 23 to
27 years. On the other hand, the BJP’s
vote share among this group was 8 percentage
points higher than what it was
in 2014. It is possible that having voted
for the BJP for two or three elections,
these young voters may continue voting
for the party in future elections, thus
giving the BJP a long-term advantage. 11
Time series data on young voters show
that BJP has always had an advantage
among the young voters, but the gap between
young and other voters’ support
for the party was marginal. However,
this gap has widened when one looks at
the last two elections of 2014 and 2019
(Table 5).
Segregating the data by various
socio-demographics factors, one
finds that the BJP saw an increase in
its support among both young men
and women, but the advantage among
young men has narrowed down in
these elections. Both men (41 percent)
and women (40 percent) voted for the
BJP, more than they did for Congress,
but the increase in support for the party
was higher among young women (Table
6). On the other hand, Congress’s vote
share among young women remained
stable at 20 percent and the party saw a
marginal increase in its support among
young men. A larger proportion of youth
belonging to rich economic classes voted
for the BJP compared to their counterparts.
This finding is identical to the
existing national picture, which shows
that elites are the most loyal supporters
of the BJP. However, the maximum gain
in terms of votes for the BJP came from
poor youth, where the party saw a gain
of whooping 12 percentage points from
2014 elections. Conversely, maximum
gain for Congress came from upper
class youth. When disaggregating the
data in terms of residential locality, one
notices that the BJP received unprecedented
support from youth residing in
rural and urban areas of the country.
The BJP saw an advantage across all
caste groups, but the maximum gains
came from Lower OBC youth. The party
saw an increase of 14 percentage points
among this group from 2014, followed
by Upper OBC and Tribals. It is important
to note these trends are similar to
the adults as well, but in general, more
young voters preferred the BJP than the
adults did.
3. Explaining Factors That
Influenced the Youth Vote
in Favor of the BJP
The BJP has been successful in
consolidating a significant section
of young voters in its favor.
But what are young voters really attracted
to in the party? Is it the performance
of the party in its first tenure? Do young
voters feel that the party delivered what
it promised in 2014? Is it Modi and his
leadership? Is it the impact of all the
decisions like demonization or India’s air
strike in the terrorist training camps in
Pakistan? Or is it simply not having a
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