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T
o subdue the enemy without figh
ting is the pinnacle of strategy,
said Sun Tzu in The Art of War.
Centuries later, China’s Xi Jinping hopes
to do much the same with India—defeat
it with its words. For a change, though,
South Block has chosen the path of quiet
dialogue over rhetoric, stressing a peaceful
diplomatic resolution to the standoff. The
Indian and Chinese armies last fired in
anger 50 years ago, in 1967. Every aggres
sive move the two sides have made along
the 4,057kmlong Line of Actual Control
since 1967 has essentially been postur
ing, each side warning the other against
altering the situation on the ground. In its
July 17, 2017, cover story (Face Off ), india
today explained the genesis of the current
conflict—a dispute over Doklam that
brings China even closer to the vulnerable
27kmlong Siliguri corridor that links the
northeastern states to the rest of India.
But what if there is a war? How do
the two nations compare? Xi’s reforms
have modernised China’s military and
enabled greater integration through a
newly setup joint operations command
system—something India itself has long
debated but failed to implement. In the
first year of Xi’s term, defence spending
was hiked 10.7 per cent to $114.3 billion.
By last year, it crossed $150 billion,
though independent estimates peg it
as high as $215 billion, more than five
times what India spends.
In contrast, Prime Minister Narendra
Modi has not even had a fulltime defence
minister in his cabinet since March. In the
cover story this week, Executive Editor
Sandeep Unnithan reports that the In
dian army’s modernisation drive—its plan
to replace its ageing helicopters, missiles
and infantry equipment after the 1999
Kargil War—is yet to deliver results. Its
first howitzer buys in three decades will
enter service only next year. Its Mountain
Strike Corps—an offensive high alti
tude warfighting force comprising over
90,000 soldiers—will be combatready
only by 2020. The IAF’s dip in combat
aircraft—32 instead of the sanctioned 39
fighter squadrons—is perilous. The navy
is short on both submarines and anti
submarine warfare helicopters. India’s
defence budget for 2017 was just 1.5 per
cent of the GDP, among the lowest in
recent years. But of greater concern is the
tardy pace of border infrastructure. Only
22 of the 73 allweather roads along the
LAC have been completed a decade after
they were sanctioned and the 14 strategic
railway lines to rush troops and supplies
to the border remain paperbound. China,
in comparison, has completed its road
network in border areas, and is powering
ahead with its railways.
Beijing appears to be in no mood for
compromise. One reason is the cur
rent domestic political climate, with the
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) set to hold
massive war games for its 90th anniver
sary on August 1 and a onceinfiveyears
party congress—all important for Xi—in
November. Any sign of weakness could
boost his rivals. The Chinese consider this
dispute more serious than past faceoffs.
“From the PLA to every diplomat, I’m
hearing the same message every day: this
time it’s different,” says Ananth Krishnan,
india today’s Beijing correspondent. The
Chinese are saying the dispute is not about
Doklam but about India crossing a settled
border into what they see as their terri
tory, so the message is unless we withdraw,
there’s no room for deescalation. India is
saying let both sides withdraw and then
talk. The deadlock will not be easy to break
with tension likely for quite some time.
Yet a conflict with India would be
disastrous for China. The key to Xi’s
ambitions—including his pet One Belt,
One Road project—is a peaceful environ
ment and preserving the global image of
a responsible, rising China. Also, despite
all our failings in defence acquisition, in
this instance the terrain favours India.
The Chinese would suffer heavy casual
ties in case of an assault. That said, both
sides should again recall Sun Tzu: There
is no instance of a nation benefitting from
prolonged warfare.
(Aroon Purie)
AUGUST 7, 2 017
INDIA TODAY
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