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E
lections to the 14th Gujarat as-
sembly are significant for several
reasons. Gujarat is Prime Minister
Narendra Modi’s home state, which
supported his elevation by giving his
party, the BJP, a clean sweep of its 26
Lok Sabha seats. It will show the way
forward to the BJP in its march towards
the 2019 general election—assembly
elections follow in the key states of
Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan
and Chhattisgarh. It will also be a test
of the much-vaunted Gujarat model of
development. The year 1995 was the last
time there was a Congress government
in the state, that’s 22 years ago. The BJP
has no rival who can claim credit for the
progress the state has seen, but there is
no one who can share the blame either.
No government can please everybody
and one ruling for over two decades car-
ries a lot of anti-incumbency baggage.
Add to that Gujarat’s history of
volatile youth politics. Student protests
against high mess bills and poor quality
of food in Ahmedabad in December 1973
spiralled into the Nav Nirman movement
against Chimanbhai Patel’s government,
which grew into Jayaprakash Narayan’s
total revolution. It is instructive to see
the three young challengers from the
state, each representing a particular
interest group that feels left behind by
the slogan of Hun chhun vikas, hun
chhun Gujarat (I am development, I am
Gujarat). Hardik Patel caught the imagi-
nation of young people during the violent
pro-Patel reservation stir in Gujarat in
2015. Alpesh Thakore organised the Gu-
jarat Thakore Sena to raise awareness of
liquor addiction within his OBC Kshatri-
ya community and then formed the OBC
Ekta Morcha to deal with problems of
farmers and unemployed youth before
joining the Congress. Jignesh Mevani
rose to prominence during the Una
agitation in 2016 when a group of Dalits
was assaulted by cow vigilantes. These
leaders are joined by a newly energised
Rahul Gandhi, who has been taking the
battle into the BJP camp by addressing
one-on-one meetings with trade unions,
dairy workers and small traders. This
is not just the BJP’s traditional voter
base but also those adversely affected by
demonetisation and GST. The 47-year-
old vice president of the Congress party
has been helped by sharper speeches
and a smart social media strategy which
counters the BJP’s vitriol with uncom-
mon wit. He has made BJP’s tanashahi
(autocratic rule) an issue.
Despite the churn in Gujarat politics,
as the India Today TV poll shows, all this
may not be enough to defeat either the
well-oiled election machinery that BJP
president Amit Shah has put in place or
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s undeni-
able charisma. Having travelled twice
with the prime minister during his cam-
paign when he was chief minister. I can
vouch for the spell he has cast on his state.
Last time, the BJP won 115 out of the 182
assembly seats. It hopes to better that
since Modi is the prime minister now. He
has raised the stakes in this battle himself
by making five visits home in the last
month, and announcing projects worth a
total of over Rs 15,000 crore.
Deputy Editor Uday Mahurkar, who
has covered Gujarat for india today
for three decades and has chronicled
Modi’s rise in detail, detects simmering
discontent against the BJP in spite of its
high voltage aggressive campaign. The
question is how much of this will actu-
ally turn into votes against the BJP. The
party’s message is of development and
corruption-free government. The Con-
gress, despite its seeming renewal, suf-
fers from an acute absence of organised
ground support. It has too many leaders
and not enough workers. The departure
of the wily Shankersinh Vaghela could
also be a spoiler for them. The fact is
that based on the last assembly election
results, the gap between the Congress
and BJP is substantial.
That apart, what earlier seemed like a
cakewalk for the BJP no longer seems so.
The heat is on, and Prime Minister Modi’s
prestige is on the line. A win may not be
enough for the party. It has to win well.
(Aroon Purie)
NOV E M BE R 6 , 2 017
INDIA TODAY
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