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EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
T
he general election of 2014
changed the political landscape
of this country dramatically. For
the first time in 25 years, a single
party won a majority. The reason was the
birth of a political colossus in the form of
Narendra Modi. A charismatic leader and
a revitalised party swept across most of In-
dia destroying rivals, following it up with
wins in 12 out of 23 state elections since.
The demoralised opposition saw a glimmer
of hope after the BJP’s lacklustre perfor-
mance in the prime minister’s home state
of Gujarat. This was succeeded by the loss
of two byelections in Rajasthan followed
by the more recent loss of four major Lok
Sabha byelections in Uttar Pradesh and
Bihar. In all these states, the NDA was the
ruling regime. The Uttar Pradesh byelec-
tions witnessed the unthinkable, with the
two most bitter rivals combining to beat
a common enemy only to prove that there
are no permanent enemies in politics, only
a common thirst for power.
The anti-BJP movement got another
boost when the Telugu Desam, a BJP ally,
started quarrelling with it and withdrew
its ministers from the NDA government,
becoming the second ally to do so after
the Shiv Sena. Last week, the principal
opposition party also threw its hat in
the ring when UPA chairperson Sonia
Gandhi hosted a dinner for the heads of 20
“like-minded” parties. Earlier, at the India
Today Conclave, she announced she would
do everything possible to prevent the BJP
from returning to power in 2019. That
may not be entirely in her hands or indeed
within her domain, but there is no doubt
that politics in the past two weeks has
become quite a cat and mouse game. There
is a certain restlessness in the air amongst
the political class. Parties formed on
regional, ethnic, caste and linguistic basis
are especially vulnerable as they jockey for
space in an increasingly volatile ecosystem.
Take Tamil Nadu. Over the past two
months alone, it has witnessed three new
political alignments after decades of rule
by the two rival Dravidian parties. The
rise of superstars Rajinikanth and Kamal
Haasan as well as the party floated by
T.T.V. Dinakaran will only add to the con-
fusion, with the BJP's role being somewhat
nebulous. In the erstwhile united Andhra
Pradesh, there are two regional behe-
moths, N. Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP and
K. Chandrashekar Rao’s Telangana Rash-
Our May 4, 2009 cover
tra Samithi as well as the ambitious Y.S.
Jaganmohan Reddy of the YSR Congress.
india today’s cover story this week,
anchored by Senior Associate Editor
Kaushik Deka, examines the arithmetic
of 2019, which shows the BJP is headed
for solitary battles in 304 seats in 10 states
against multiple opposition parties. Five
years ago, it won 140 of these 304 seats
when opposition parties were scatte red—71
in Uttar Pradesh alone. An analysis of the
2014 results suggests that had the Sama-
jwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party
fought together, they could have brought
the BJP tally down to less than 30.
There is certainly some discontent
stemming from unfulfilled expectations.
The special package demand for Andhra
Pradesh, M.K. Stalin’s cry for Dravida
Nadu, minority status for Lingayats in
Karnataka, and the farmers’ protest in
Maharashtra have put the BJP on the
defensive. The critical issue will be the per-
formance of the Congress, especially in the
100 seats in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand and
Himachal Pradesh, where it will be in di-
rect contest with the BJP. The BJP may not
be able to repeat its stellar performance of
winning 282 seats in 2014 but no one can
disregard the political acumen, disci-
pline and determination of the Narendra
Modi-Amit Shah combine. Is it enough for
the opposition to have a common enemy
when they have been enemies not too long
ago? Above all, will they be able to agree
on who will be the captain of this motley
combine? Politics is also not always a mat-
ter of arithmetic. There is, however, one
certainty. The 2019 general election will
not be a cakewalk for either side.
(Aroon Purie)
A PR I L 2 , 2 018
INDIA TODAY
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