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P
ollsters in the UK came up with
the acronym TINA for Margaret
Thatcher when she ruled continu-
ously for 11 years. In India, we used that
for Indira Gandhi in her heyday. Now, a
new one can easily be coined for Naren-
dra Modi—TIMO (There is Modi Only).
Over three years into his term, Prime
Minister Modi’s personal popular-
ity reigns supreme in India’s political
landscape, according to the latest india
today Mood of the Nation poll. The gap
between him and the second most popu-
lar prime minister ever is only widening,
with twice the number of people rating
him as a better prime minister than Indi-
ra Gandhi. He seems to have achieved a
kind of political nirvana where his popu-
larity is not linked to people’s view of his
performance. Their concerns do not dent
his sway over them. This is our fifth poll
since the general election of 2014 when
his party, the BJP, and its allies (NDA)
won 287 seats, and in all our polls except
one (February 2016, where they dropped
by one seat) the seats they are projected
to win have only increased. The latest
poll shows the NDA would get 349 seats
if elections were to be held today, with a
loss of 11 seats over the survey done six
months ago. In contrast, the UPA would
get 75 seats—up by 15 from our last poll.
There is much to cheer for the BJP
in this poll. So far, India has shown
tremendous patience and fortitude with
the prime minister’s brand of gover-
nance. They have absorbed the shock of
demonetisation and are adjusting to the
demands of GST. Between 40 and 50
per cent of the respondents believe the
government is doing well on a range of
social issues, from provision of education
and healthcare to protection of religious
minorities as well as Dalits. However,
there are warning signs, too. Jobs is
Prime Minister Modi’s most troublesome
issue. A significant 53 per cent of those
polled said the NDA government has not
been able to create jobs in the country,
a sharp jump from 36 per cent in the
previous survey. The facts concur. The
Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy,
in a recent report, said 1.5 million jobs
were lost during January-April 2017, the
quarter immediately following demone-
tisation. The second part of the mid-year
Economic Survey tabled in Parliament
on August 12 says the country may not
achieve the projected 6.75-7.5 per cent
growth for 2017-18. Industrial output
has dropped 0.1 per cent year-on-year in
June. Manufacturing output has deceler-
ated 0.4 per cent year-on-year in July.
Added to this is the agrarian crisis with
suicides of farmers hitting the headlines
with embarrassing regularity.
In spite of the economic headwinds he
may be facing, people still feel the biggest
achievement of the Modi government is
the crackdown on black money and run-
ning a corruption-free government. No
wonder in his Independence Day speech,
Prime Minister Modi commented on how
an imandari ka mahotsav (festival of
honesty) had begun. Nearly 40 per cent
believe that the achhe din he promised in
the 2014 elections have arrived. Our poll
shows more than ever before that India
wants him as its leader—63 per cent
rate him as either outstanding or good. I
believe one of the reasons for his enor-
mous appeal is the common man’s total
identification with him. He understands
and feels their pain. Above all, he works
ceaselessly and selflessly for their welfare.
When india today started elec-
tion forecasting and the Congress party
was ruling the roost, pollsters created
a matrix called IOU (Index of Opposi-
tion Unity). According to the poll, Rahul
Gandhi seems the most likely alterna-
tive to lead a non-BJP mahagathband-
han should there be such an occasion,
but it is interesting that 43 per cent of
the respondents believe the Congress
can and should be led by a person other
than from the Nehru-Gandhi clan. With
IOU at its nadir and TIMO strongly in
play, this may well ensure many more
Independence Day addresses from
Prime Minister Modi.
(Aroon Purie)
AUGUST 2 8 , 2 017
INDIA TODAY
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