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FROM THE
EDITOR-IN-CHIEFN arendra Modi ’ s stunning victory in 2014 — in which the BJP got a full majority on its own , the first time any party had done so in 25 years — changed the political landscape of the country . It held the promise of political stability and a decisive government . Many considered it a great boon for the country . However , as often happens , boons come with their own curse . In this case , it was hubris . The BJP ignored its allies . Oldest ally Shiv Sena is in a sulk in Maharashtra . The TDP ’ s Chandrababu Naidu walked out of the NDA this March , alleging unfair treatment and neglect . The Shiromani Akali Dal is upset . Their back-again ally in Bihar , the JD ( U ), is bristling . The NDA has remained headless since 2013 and allia nce members have not met since 2015 . All this assumes great significance now as our latest india today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation ( MOTN ) poll shows that the BJP is going to need every one of these disgrun tled allies and more if it has to get a simple majority in 2019 . Yet , in spite of the attrition of allies , Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains head and shou lders above other leaders : 49 per cent of the respondents feel he is best suited to be the next prime minister . What is worrying for the BJP , however , is that our poll shows Rahul Gandhi closing in . With 27 per cent of the respondents endorsing the Congress president for the post of PM , the gap between him and Prime Minister Modi has narrowed to just 22 percentage points , from 55 percentage points in January 2017 . Besides , with the opposition parties attempting to form a mahagathbandhan ( grand alliance ), the BJP has even greater cause for anxiety . Two hypothetical MOTN scenarios , where the unity of the opposition parties is high , point to the fact that it could be a close call for both the NDA and UPA , with neither getting a majority . In which case , it will be a triumph of arithmetic over personality . The battle then will not be Modi versus the rest but NDA + versus UPA +. There have been early signs of this , in the drama in Bengaluru after the Karnataka poll results and in the bypoll victories in Uttar Pradesh . This is why allies are going to matter most for the BJP , and it has to be prepared to manage a coalition without a majority of its own .
The NDA is working hard to ensure the people don ’ t get a chance to find out . It has slowly started adding on allies , from Telangana
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chief minister K . Chandrashekar Rao to YSR Congress leader Jaganmohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh and the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu . The Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal also helped NDA candidate Hari vansh Narayan Singh of the JD ( U ) win the recent election for deputy chairperson of the Rajya Sabha . It also showed the BJP ’ s ability to patch up with disgruntled allies such as the Nitish Kumar-led JD ( U ).
Similarly , the Congress is pushing for a prepoll alliance with strong regional parties , such as the TMC , SP and BSP . All of them have been bitter rivals in the past , but are united in their ambition to oust the Modi-led BJP government .
So the big question for the two blocks is how to maintain existing allies and find as many as they can with pre- and post-poll alliances . In all probability , we are heading once again towards an era of coalitions .
Undoubtedly , the Modi government has been on steroids , launching new schemes and revamping old ones , combined with major institutional reforms . The next elections will be a big test of the success of its major schemes . According to our poll , the BJP will be on a sticky wicket if it is going to rely only on its achievements to get votes , as the satisfaction with their performance is sliding , specially on the jobs front . The other worrying finding is that caste violence has emerged as the biggest threat to internal security , ahead of cross-border terrorism and communal violence , in our survey . Hopefully , this will be kept out of electioneering .
Psephologist-turned-politician Yogendra Yadav put it well when he said the BJP will win the next elections because of 3 Ms — Modi , Media and Machine ( election ). He could have added another M — Money . To counter the Ms , he advises three Ps — Principles , Policy and Political Roadmap . At the moment , the mahagathbandhan seems to lack these .
That aside , what any contender for power must offer is Hope . That ’ s what Modi did in 2014 . Where that hope will come from , nobody knows yet . But never underestimate the wisdom of the Indian voter . Many a mighty have made that mistake .
( Aroon Purie )
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RNI NO . 28587 / 75 REGISTERED NO . DL ( ND ) -11 / 6068 / 2018-20 ; U ( C ) -88 / 2018-20 ; FARIDABAD / 05 / 2017-19 LICENSED TO POST WITHOUT PREPAYMENT
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February 5 , 2018
August 28 , 2017
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WHY HE SHOULD WORRY
MODI IS STILL THE FRONTRUNNER FOR PM IN 2019 , BUT THE BJP HAS SLIPPED BELOW THE MAJORITY MARK
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