CURRENT AFFAIRS
avocados, macadamia nuts, mangoes and fruit juices, which is why they were excluded.”
However, not all sectors were shielded. Diamonds and iron ore remained subject to tariffs, while soft citrus fruits such as mandarins, along with table grapes and wine, continue to face duties. As a result, the overall economic impact of the tariffs was diluted but not eliminated.
Unfortunately, exports and other manufactured goods continue to face the full tariff burden, placing pressure on margins and export volumes.“ These sectors will feel the impact more acutely,” says Blackmore.“ That said, South Africa is not alone, as many competing countries are also subject to tariffs, which reduces the net competitive disadvantage.”
NEW UNCERTAINTY FROM WASHINGTON
In January 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that any country“ doing business with Iran” could face a blanket 25 % tariff on all trade with the United States. While no executive order or formal guidance has been issued at the time of going to print, the statement has sent more shockwaves through global markets. For a country like South Africa, whose 2024 exports to the US amounted to approximately US $ 8.2 billion, the potential implications could be significant. South Africa’ s direct trade with Iran is limited, but analysts warn that a broad interpretation of the policy could still put the country in Washington’ s crosshairs.
HB Senekal, a Partner at Bowmans, highlighted the risk to South Africa’ s trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act( AGOA), which allows duty-free access for many exports, particularly in the automotive, agricultural, and metals sectors.“ A blanket 25 % tariff would significantly erode the benefits South Africa enjoys under the AGOA Act, which provides dutyfree access for many products. Analysts warn that such a measure could compress margins and undermine competitiveness across several sectors,” he says.
AGOA RENEWAL ADDS COMPLEXITY
The timing of Trump’ s announcement coincides with ongoing US legislative action on AGOA. The US House of Representatives has passed a measure to extend the programme through 2028, but Senate approval and the presidential signature are still pending. During this process South Africa’ s eligibility has come under closer scrutiny, with some US lawmakers citing foreignpolicy considerations as part of the debate.
Industry groups in South Africa have emphasised the importance of AGOA-linked exports for employment, noting that hundreds of thousands of jobs rely on US trade.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
Experts outline three possible outcomes for 2026:
• Full enforcement of the tariff: This would override AGOA benefits and impact sectors such as the automotive industry, mining, and agriculture.
• Delayed or narrowed implementation: If the measure is postponed or limited to specific Iran-related activities, immediate disruption may ease, but uncertainty would remain.
• AGOA renewal with conditions: The programme could be extended, but with the introduction of compliance requirements or restrictions for South Africa.
SECTOR IMPACT
Automotive exports could face the sharpest pressure, with potential order deferrals and production adjustments. Mining and metals may see margin compression and a diversion to alternative markets at lower returns. Agriculture – particularly citrus, nuts, and wine – would be vulnerable due to narrow margins and seasonal shipping windows.
WHAT BUSINESSES ARE WATCHING
Companies are monitoring developments closely and considering contingency measures such as contract adjustments, market diversification, and engagement with policymakers. Legal and compliance teams are reviewing exposure to Iranrelated transactions to mitigate risk.
For businesses with significant US trade exposure, early planning and proactive engagement are essential to managing risk and maintaining competitiveness.
“ The bottom line,” says Senekal,“ is that South Africa’ s trade outlook with the United States now depends on two unresolved factors: whether the tariff is implemented, and the outcome of AGOA renewal. Until clarity emerges, businesses face a challenging environment for planning and investment.” IB
MARCH 2026 / INBOUND SA 13