MINING
GLOBAL MINING ENTERS THE NEW YEAR UNDER MOUNTING SUPPLY PRESSURE, INTENSIFYING GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND GROWING REGIONALISATION. NEW FINANCING MODELS, TECHNOLOGY SCALE-UPS, AND MIDSTREAM INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES ARE RESHAPING STRATEGY FOR MINES AND GOVERNMENTS ALIKE.
According to Tycho Möncks, Managing Director and Partner at BCG, the year ahead will be shaped by“ tightening global mineral supply, increasing geopolitical dependency, and rising opportunities for regional value capture.”
TIGHT SUPPLY, CONCENTRATED PROCESSING, AND EMERGING REGIONAL PLAYS
Global demand for critical minerals is projected to grow more than 1.3x by 2040, outpacing new supply as project development timelines continue to lag. China’ s position in refining and processing – covering roughly 60 % of lithium and 85 % of rare earth element( REE) processing – remains a core source of supply risk for buyers.
Puso Thahane, partner at BCG in Johannesburg, notes that this creates space for alternative players.“ Non-Chinese participants, including South Africa, can reduce dependency by building local midstream capacity and forming regional supply partnerships. The opportunity lies in diversifying the value chain, not replacing it.”
INVESTMENT SHIFTS: SUPPLY, SECURITY AND NEW FINANCING MODELS
Global mining investment is moving toward long-term supply security and financing structures that share risk across the value chain.
18 INBOUND SA / JANUARY 2026