FROM THE EXECUTIVE
From the Executive ...
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The season ahead shapes as one of the most challenging for our expanded industry ... The main positive for the industry is demand for Australian almonds remains strong across the world .
Peter Hayes , ABA Chairperson and Tim Jackson , ABA CEO |
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Industry facing a challenging season
The season ahead shapes as one of the most challenging for our expanding industry . Abnormally high rainfall in the Riverina , a strengthening Australian currency against the US dollar , ongoing sea freight congestion and drastic increases for almost all on-farm inputs will have a major impact . Rising input costs will place an unprecedented impost on stakeholders throughout the supply chain . There is also the uncertainty around availability of many imported products which is adding to the pressure . Water costs aside , growers are likely to face some of the steepest increases in the cost of production the industry has faced . Perceptions from outside the industry that these costs can be passed on to consumers overlooks the commodity market reality that California ’ s supply imbalance continues to drive some of the lowest prices in 10 years ( see our market report for more details ). Harvest is in full flight and all indications are that it will be a record crop despite the negative impact of hail and wind damage , especially in South Australia . The unprecedented rainfall experienced in the Riverina is also presenting problems for growers and processors . It is likely that the volume of inshell available from this region , especially the amount of clean , unblemished product needed for the Chinese buyers , is a major unknown due to staining and all the
In A Nutshell - Autumn 2022 Vol 23 Issue 1
other challenges around managing wet product . In more recent times , the strengthening Australia dollar will also be detrimental to grower returns . Historically , Australian dollar returns go up or down by as much as AUD0.10 to 0.15 cents per kilogram every time the AUD-USD exchange rate changes by one cent . The stronger the Australian dollar , the lower the return . Speculation that the AUD will hit 80 cents against the USD has the potential to wipe more than 50 cents per kilogram off returns . The main positive for the industry is demand for Australian almonds remains strong across the world . The Californian monster crop and the US industry ’ s frustration in getting access to enough sea freight to export it in a timely manner will inevitably result in a record high carry out of inventory . This will have an impact on buyer behaviour , with no-one under pressure to lock away volumes for fear of missing out . The exception to this will premium kernel grades and sizing , an area in which the Australian industry specialises . As usual , nonpareil 20-22s will again be the most sought after premium nut , while retailers will be chasing huge volumes of 23-25s , 25-27s and 27-30s . Despite the ongoing delays in shipping , the expertise and geographic proximity to key markets has resulted in Australia exporting more than ever before . This highlights the ongoing importance of the free trade agreement with China and the new “ all year round ” reality of the Australian export program .
No longer is counter seasonality the key point of difference for a maturing industry that must process , pack and ship increasingly larger crops for 12 months to clear inventory .
Reconnecting with our growers
The ABA team have hit the road in 2022 , keen to reconnect with our growers across all regions following almost two years of pandemic lockdowns and strict border controls . Our objective is to ensure growers , new and established , are supported wherever possible and are aware of the services and resources available through the board . Industry Development team members Deidre Jaensch , Josh Fielke and newcomer Rajesh Nomula have just returned from a tour of the Riverina where the challenges of recent unprecedented rainfall has been foremost in the minds of everyone . The region has received 690mm of rain in the past six months and 219mm over the past two months . No access to rice storages this season has placed added pressure on keeping the crop dry . The emerging issue within the Riverina has been the widespread onset of bud failure in 4-5-yearold Monterey variety and the increasing interest in self-fertile varieties like Carina and Shasta , especially . The ABA is driving the need for further investigation into the