Market update
PRICING on the global market appears to be improving slowly . Nonpareil inshell has steadily climbed over the past month after reaching less than US $ 1.60 a pound in February . A shortage of quality product and emerging expectations that availability from Australia could be restricted due to seasonal conditions has helped fueled the rise . More than 90 % of all inshell sold from Australia is destined for either India or China . Kernel pricing still lags behind the NPIS kernel weight equivalent . The range between nonpareil and pollinator kernel varieties like Carmel and Monterey remains relatively tight . The fact that pricing continues to hover around the US $ 2 per pound mark for Carmel will win favour with those procurement managers seeking to maximise their retail margins with a mid-sized almond . Positive influences on pricing are the ongoing concerns around water availability in California after receiving below average snowpack and rain over winter and the ongoing sea freight congestion creating doubt around supply of key products . A frost in some parts of California ’ s growing districts is also sparking concerns around the 2022 crop potential . On the flip side has been the ongoing speculation around the size of the California 2021 season carry-out . Taking too many almonds at of one season into the next , does not bode well for finding an equilibrium across supply and demand . This is largely due to processors and marketers being able to clear their inventories due to ongoing congestion and delays with sea freight .
( It is worth nothing that there is growing speculation that the bulk of the carryover will be made of lower grade and less sought after varieties which might not impact the Australia premium export offerings as first thought .) The plant based food phenomenon continues to drive demand in established markets for all things almonds , but sellers are frustrated by their inability to meet any type of pent up demand due to their inability to move stock promptly . A missed sales opportunity is never recovered . The next major event on the global market will be the May Subjective Estimate for the 2022 California almond crop . Another three billion plus pound prediction could soften the market as buyers ease concerns around availability and use the unprecedented size of the 2021 season carry-out to justify their buying activities . The recent USDA position reports for California almonds confirm sales volumes season to date are well behind previous years . In contrast the Australia almond industry has leveraged its free trade agreement with China to post record export sales for 2021-22 . The industry has sold to 45 countries during the year , but the direct shipping services to China and the premium price has been a critical factor in sales strategies from Down Under . Increased input costs , higher freight charges and lower global market prices have clearly been key considerations in sales strategies during the past season . Houston-based independent global almond market analyst , Stratamarkets , has reported there is unprecedented interest to shipping containers overseas without confirmed sales . The uncertainty of arrival times and the new mentality around securing stock “ just in case ” has resulted in more Californian sellers negotiating sales once stock is on the water or arrived in key markets like Europe . Stratamarkets ’ latest report suggest spot pricing for stock readily available was proving an attractive incentive for sending unsold containers into key markets . This is not a new practice for various trading houses , it now has become an option for even the more risk-averse marketers looking to clear stock in a timely manner and with a potential premium . The biggest news on the Australian trade front is a new bilateral trade agreement with India that includes a 50 % reduction in tariffs on 34,000 tonnes of inshell and kernel products . After many years of negotiations , the tariff advantage will help the industry boost sales in a key market and make it more competitive against Californian product . Across the 2021-22 season almost 24,000 tonnes of product was exported to India , so the new 34,000 tonne quota provides room to grow . Meanwhile , the industry will continue to work with the Department of Foreign Affairs ( DFAT ) and Trade and the Department of Agriculture , Water and Environment ( DAWE ) to push for a total free trade agreement in the next round of negotiations with India . The details around the supply period for the new quota , how it will be managed and when it will come into play is yet to be announced . The ABA has been told by the Commonwealth that it will take until the last quarter of 2022 before the 50 % tariff reduction is officially written into law .
industry . australianalmonds . com . au
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