Causal Analytics in IIoT – AI That Knows What Causes What, and When
will be ready to retire within 5 years 5 . The US
Department of Labor also estimates that the
average age of industry employees is now
over 50 and up to half of the current energy
industry workforce will retire within 5-10
years. 6
for telecommunication devices that states
“the effect of a telecommunications
network is proportional to the square of the
number of connected users of the system
(n 2 )”.
Metcalfe’s law, now also used in economics
and business management, provides some
quantification of the impact of the increasing
complexity of equipment to troubleshoot
potential causal relationships between
operational events.
Manual RCA requires the combination of a
rigorous methodology, fault analysis
technology and experience to evaluate the
possible causes of business events such as
equipment failure, quality problems or
safety incidents. Much of the expertise
needed will be lost with the retiring
workforce. A data-driven, algorithmic
approach provides a viable replacement for
the experience of people to determine
causal relationships between business
events.
Inaccuracy of Root Cause Analysis
Root Cause Analysis gained popularity in
industrial and other sectors such as
healthcare. One of the main challenges that
emerged centers around the fact that it
requires facilitation and analysis by people
who can process only limited amounts of
information. People are also susceptible to
opinions and organizational influences such
as politics. Peerally 9 et al describe the
problem with Root Cause Analysis with these
8 main challenges:
The unhealthy quest for “the” root
cause
Questionable quality of RCA
investigations
Political hijack
Complexity of Industrial Equipment
As
industrial
equipment
becomes
7
increasingly sophisticated
and more
complex, the ability to perform diagnostics
becomes increasingly more difficult. As
equipment becomes more complex and
sophisticated, the number or combinations
and permutations of potential causal factors
for certain events increases exponentially. It
follows a similar pattern to Metcalfe’s law 8
5
U.S. Department of Energy, Quadrennial Energy Review (QER) Task Force report second installment titled “Transforming the
Nation’s Electricity System.” Chapter V: Electricity Workforce of the 21st-Century: Changing Needs and New Opportunities.
January 2017. Retrieved from https://energy.gov/epsa/initiatives/quadrennial-energy-review-qer
6
U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration “Industry Profile – Energy.” Retrieved from
https://www.doleta.gov/brg/indprof/energy_profile.cfm
7
Challenges To Complex Equipment Manufacturers: Managing Complexity, Delivering Flexibility, and Providing Optimal Service
http://www.oracle.com/us/solutions/046249.pdf
8 Metcalfe's law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law
9 The problem with root cause analysis http://qualitysafety.bmj.com/content/26/5/417
IIC Journal of Innovation
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