“ The landscape is shifting. But for those who are ready it’ s not a threat – it’ s an edge”
• Buyers are more disciplined. The era of speculative M & A has passed. Deals now require clear value drivers and credible integration paths.
• The heyday valuations of the post- Covid boom are unlikely to return anytime soon – serious sellers need to price for today’ s market, not yesterday’ s.
• Strategic acquirers have the advantage. Companies with fat balance sheets can transact without relying on leverage. The key takeaway? Strong assets are still getting strong terms. If you’ ve invested in preparation, your timing may be perfect.
• Brazil and South America remain attractive markets due to their increasing regulated footprint and a land-grab is still in play to ready for the 2026 World Cup.
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FINANCE
and central bank balance sheets that ultimately drive iGaming capital flows.
THE $ 9 TRILLION PROBLEM
The US is facing a refinancing wall: over $ 9 trillion in government debt is set to mature within the next 18 months. With interest costs already eating into federal budgets and bond markets starting to show signs of stress, pressure is mounting on the Fed to ease financial conditions. That could mean more rate cuts, renewed QE or indirect forms of liquidity support.
But beyond the domestic playbook, there may be a deeper strategy unfolding. This is about more than balance sheets; it’ s about preserving the dollar’ s dominance.
The aim? Spread the debt load more evenly across global balance sheets and ensure that future treasury auctions aren’ t met with silence. In doing so, the US can buy time, maintain funding flexibility and, crucially, avoid a default.
This matters for iGaming because these dynamics shape the backdrop for capital markets. If the strategy holds, we could see renewed investor risk appetite, lower rates and a more accommodating environment for M & A. If it breaks … please throw me a life raft.
THE INVISIBLE DRIVER OF VALUATION
Global liquidity reached record highs earlier this year, something that was driven by central bank support and a softer US dollar. Historical cycles suggest we’ re now in the latter stages of this liquidity wave, which typically peaks every five to six years.
Liquidity drives sentiment and sentiment drives valuations. There is usually a three-month lag between liquidity changes and asset performance, so the recent uptrend may still have further to run.
“ The landscape is shifting. But for those who are ready it’ s not a threat – it’ s an edge”
But there are warning signs. US tax outflows have drained treasury cash accounts. The Fed has slowed its injections. China’ s central bank is tightening to defend its currency. And rising bond volatility is increasing collateral requirements, effectively shrinking leverage.
In simple terms, the window is open, but it won’ t stay that way forever.
THIS MAY BE THE MOMENT TO MOVE
Macroeconomic shifts might seem abstract, but they’ re already influencing capital pricing, how buyers engage and what kind of deals get over the line.
Capital is more expensive. Even for firms without direct bond market exposure, financing through revolving credit facilities, convertibles or bank loans is tightening as interest rates remain elevated and geopolitical tensions persist.
• Buyers are more disciplined. The era of speculative M & A has passed. Deals now require clear value drivers and credible integration paths.
• The heyday valuations of the post- Covid boom are unlikely to return anytime soon – serious sellers need to price for today’ s market, not yesterday’ s.
• Strategic acquirers have the advantage. Companies with fat balance sheets can transact without relying on leverage. The key takeaway? Strong assets are still getting strong terms. If you’ ve invested in preparation, your timing may be perfect.
M & A MOMENTUM: SENTIMENT CHECK FOR 2025
The iGaming sector saw robust deal flow throughout 2024, with around 50 transactions inked. However, a more cautious tone emerged in the first quarter of 2025, as shifting market sentiment and increased volatility caused some buyers to temporarily pause. Many of these transactions should regain momentum once market confidence returns.
Affiliate consolidation has been relatively quiet compared to activity among operators and suppliers, something that has been impacted by external headwinds including Google’ s algorithm shifts, regulatory changes in Brazil, tighter cookie-tracking restrictions and growing issues with parasitic traffic.
Despite these pressures, the affiliate model remains fundamentally robust, especially within privately held businesses, many of which show resilience and adaptability.
The long-term outlook for quality affiliate assets is still positive, with growth expected to resume as businesses continue to adjust to evolving market conditions.
Strategic deals continue, although often quietly and off-market. Buyers with conviction remain active behind the scenes, making strategic preparation and clear market positioning more critical than ever.
REGULATION: REWRITING THE MAP
Alongside macro, regulatory dynamics continue to reshape the global iGaming flows.
• Brazil and South America remain attractive markets due to their increasing regulated footprint and a land-grab is still in play to ready for the 2026 World Cup.
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